Canada–U.S. Fisheries Management in the Gulf of Maine: Taking Stock and Charting Future Coordinates in the Face of Climate Change

VanderZwaag, David; Bailey, Megan; Shackell, Nancy L.

doi:10.1163/22116001-03101002

Cited by 6 publications

(6 citation statements)

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“…Considering our focus on implications for fisheries management institutions, future fisheries scenarios should ideally recognize the complexities of fisheries management under global change, e.g. increasing fishing costs due to increasing energy costs and inefficient transboundary fish stock agreements due to geographical shifts of commercially targeted stocks (Maury et al 2017, VanderZwaag et al 2017, Tittensor et al 2018a). This remains a major challenge, especially in aligning any such scenarios to common socio-economic scenarios used to drive other sectors, such as the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, that define alternative trajectories in society and ecosystems in a world without climate policies (O'Neill et al 2014), or the Oceanic Socioeconomic Pathways addressing policy-relevant scenarios for future ocean uses (Maury et al 2017).…”

Section: Limitations and Future Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Effective management can provide a buffer against the impacts of a warming ocean. Few fisheries management authorities are in the process of integrating climate-change considerations in their management objectives, with traditional fisheries management measures being the favored approach (Soomai 2017, VanderZwaag et al 2017. This highlights the need to provide comprehensive and accessible scenarios of long-term biological and ecological changes within respective regulatory areas to effectively work towards sustainable management of marine fisheries under climate change.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Climate-change impacts and fisheries management challenges in the North Atlantic Ocean

Bryndum-Buchholz

Boyce

Tittensor

et al. 2020

Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser.

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Climate-induced changes in the world’s oceans will have implications for fisheries productivity and management. Using a model ensemble from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish-MIP), we analyzed future trajectories of climate-change impacts on marine animal biomass and associated environmental drivers across the North Atlantic Ocean and within the Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Organization (NAFO) convention area and evaluated potential consequences for fisheries productivity and management. Our ensemble results showed that the magnitude of projected biomass changes increased over time and from a low (RCP2.6) to high (RCP8.5) emissions scenario. Within individual NAFO divisions, however, projected biomass changes differed in the magnitude and sometimes direction of change between near (the 2030s) and far future (the 2090s) and contrasting emissions scenarios. By the 2090s, most NAFO divisions with historically (1990-1999) high fisheries landings were projected to experience biomass decreases of 5-40%, while Arctic and subarctic divisions with lower historical landings were projected to experience biomass increases between 20 and 70% under RCP8.5. Future trajectories of sea surface temperature and primary production corroborated that the far-future, high-emissions scenario poses the greatest risk to marine ecosystems and the greatest challenges to fisheries management. Our study summarizes future trends of marine animal biomass and underlying uncertainties related to model projections under contrasting climate-change scenarios. Understanding such climate-change impacts on marine ecosystems is imperative for ensuring that marine fisheries remain productive and sustainable in a changing ocean.

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Section: Limitations and Future Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate-change impacts and fisheries management challenges in the North Atlantic Ocean

Bryndum-Buchholz

Boyce

Tittensor

et al. 2020

Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser.

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“…The 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) provides the legal framework for international obligations towards safeguarding marine resources. Migratory and transboundary stocks are principally managed by RFMOs (Aqorau et al., 2018; Miller & Munro, 2004; VanderZwaag et al., 2017), or conservation‐related initiatives such as the Global Transboundary Conservation Network (http://www.tbpa.net/). Still, these organizations need to explicitly consider governance in the context of climate change (Oremus et al., 2020; Pentz et al., 2018; VanderZwaag et al., 2017).…”

Section: Tracking Species Densities Across Management Areasmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Migratory and transboundary stocks are principally managed by RFMOs (Aqorau et al., 2018; Miller & Munro, 2004; VanderZwaag et al., 2017), or conservation‐related initiatives such as the Global Transboundary Conservation Network (http://www.tbpa.net/). Still, these organizations need to explicitly consider governance in the context of climate change (Oremus et al., 2020; Pentz et al., 2018; VanderZwaag et al., 2017). While building a common understanding of status and trends is a key first step towards transboundary cooperation (Pinsky et al., 2018), international governance will require global geopolitical flexibility and the establishment of transnational agreements (Miller et al., 2013; Scheffers & Pecl, 2019), which need to be supported by cross‐boundary open science (Boxes 1 and 2).…”

Section: Tracking Species Densities Across Management Areasmentioning

confidence: 99%

Are we ready to track climate‐driven shifts in marine species across international boundaries? ‐ A global survey of scientific bottom trawl data

Maureaud

Frelat

Pécuchet

et al. 2020

Global Change Biology

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Marine biota are redistributing at a rapid pace in response to climate change and shifting seascapes. While changes in fish populations and community structure threaten the sustainability of fisheries, our capacity to adapt by tracking and projecting marine species remains a challenge due to data discontinuities in biological observations, lack of data availability, and mismatch between data and real species distributions. To assess the extent of this challenge, we review the global status and accessibility of ongoing scientific bottom trawl surveys. In total, we gathered metadata for 283,925 samples from 95 surveys conducted regularly from 2001 to 2019. We identified that 59% of the metadata collected are not publicly available, highlighting that the availability of data is the most important challenge to assess species redistributions under global climate change. Given that the primary purpose of surveys is to provide independent data to inform stock assessment of commercially important populations, we further highlight that single surveys do not cover the full range of the main commercial demersal fish species. An average of 18 surveys is needed to cover at least 50% of species ranges, demonstrating the importance of combining multiple surveys to evaluate species range shifts. We assess the potential for combining surveys to track transboundary species redistributions and show that differences in sampling schemes and inconsistency in sampling can be overcome with spatio‐temporal modeling to follow species density redistributions. In light of our global assessment, we establish a framework for improving the management and conservation of transboundary and migrating marine demersal species. We provide directions to improve data availability and encourage countries to share survey data, to assess species vulnerabilities, and to support management adaptation in a time of climate‐driven ocean changes.

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“…Vulnerability assessments provide an approach to triage species that are climate sensitive and require climate change to be incorporated into stock assessments (Stortini et al 2015;Greenan et al 2019). Climate-induced distribution shifts will have to be addressed both within and among nations through effective bilateral cooperation between scientists and managers (VanderZwaag et al 2017). Within nations, fishing quotas and effort are often allocated based on management areas; the situation is further complicated for shifting transboundary species which nations assess and manage separately (Maureaud et al 2021;Shackell et al 2021).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Long-term ocean and resource dynamics in a hotspot of climate change

Lotze

Mellon

Coyne

et al. 2022

FACETS

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The abundance, distribution, and size of marine species are linked to temperature and nutrient regimes and are profoundly affected by humans through exploitation and climate change. Yet little is known about long-term historical links between ocean environmental changes and resource abundance to provide context for current and potential future trends and inform conservation and management. We synthesize >4000 years of climate and marine ecosystem dynamics in a Northwest Atlantic region currently undergoing rapid changes, the Gulf of Maine and Scotian Shelf. This period spans the late Holocene cooling and recent warming and includes both Indigenous and European influence. We compare environmental records from instrumental, sedimentary, coral, and mollusk archives with ecological records from fossils, archaeological, historical, and modern data, and integrate future model projections of environmental and ecosystem changes. This multidisciplinary synthesis provides insight into multiple reference points and shifting baselines of environmental and ecosystem conditions, and projects a near-future departure from natural climate variability in 2028 for the Scotian Shelf and 2034 for the Gulf of Maine. Our work helps advancing integrative end-to-end modeling to improve the predictive capacity of ecosystem forecasts with climate change. Our results can be used to adjust marine conservation strategies and network planning and adapt ecosystem-based management with climate change.

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Canada–U.S. Fisheries Management in the Gulf of Maine: Taking Stock and Charting Future Coordinates in the Face of Climate Change

Cited by 6 publications

References 0 publications

Climate-change impacts and fisheries management challenges in the North Atlantic Ocean

Climate-change impacts and fisheries management challenges in the North Atlantic Ocean

Are we ready to track climate‐driven shifts in marine species across international boundaries? ‐ A global survey of scientific bottom trawl data

Long-term ocean and resource dynamics in a hotspot of climate change

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