Can You See It? Perceived Variance in Scatterplot Visualization

Abstract

Understanding uncertainty in spatial domains (such as hurricane forecasting) is both important and challenging, often leading to overconfidence and underestimation of variability. The underlying source of the difficulty is not well understood, as this complex domain requires perceptual, attentional, and memory related cognitive abilities. The present study explores the impact of perception on understanding of variability in an abstract spatial task. Individuals were shown a scatter chart type display of possible endpoints of an uncertain trajectory and asked to make two separate judgements of variability: adjusting a circle to encompass 75% of endpoints and estimating the likelihood the trajectory would fall within an experimenter defined probe circle. Calibration to changes in variability were calculated for each individual on both measures and compared against each other. Results indicate a lack of sensitivity in interpreting visualized spatial uncertainty among many individuals, with performance differing depending on the probe method employed. Implications are discussed.