Can Western Based Online Prostate Cancer Risk Calculators Be Used to Predict Prostate Cancer after Prostate Biopsy for the Korean Population?

Abstract

PurposeTo access the predictive value of the European Randomized Screening of Prostate Cancer Risk Calculator (ERSPC-RC) and the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial Risk Calculator (PCPT-RC) in the Korean population.Materials and MethodsWe retrospectively analyzed the data of 517 men who underwent transrectal ultrasound guided prostate biopsy between January 2008 and November 2010. Simple and multiple logistic regression analysis were performed to compare the result of prostate biopsy. Area under the receiver operating characteristics curves (AUC-ROC) and calibration plots were prepared for further analysis to compare the risk calculators and other clinical variables.ResultsProstate cancer was diagnosed in 125 (24.1%) men. For prostate cancer prediction, the area under curve (AUC) of the ERSPC-RC was 77.4%. This result was significantly greater than the AUCs of the PCPT-RC and the prostate-specific antigen (PSA) (64.5% and 64.1%, respectively, p<0.01), but not significantly different from the AUC of the PSA density (PSAD) (76.1%, p=0.540). When the results of the calibration plots were compared, the ERSPC-RC plot was more constant than that of PSAD.ConclusionThe ERSPC-RC was better than PCPT-RC and PSA in predicting prostate cancer risk in the present study. However, the difference in performance between the ERSPC-RC and PSAD was not significant. Therefore, the Western based prostate cancer risk calculators are not useful for urologists in predicting prostate cancer in the Korean population.

Development and external multicenter validation of Chinese Prostate Cancer Consortium prostate cancer risk calculator for initial prostate biopsy

“…Still, the ERSPC-RC has better calibration compared with PCPT-RC, which overestimated the risk at all probabilities. Such finding is consistent with the Korean study [25] and a previous validation study in Chinese [10] that the ERSPC-RC performed better than the PCPT-RC in Asian populations. Secondly, the variables in nomograms developed in Western population were not all proper in Chinese clinical practice.…”

Incorporation of Detailed Family History from the Swedish Family Cancer Database into the PCPT Risk Calculator

“…The PCPTRC was externally validated in dozens of international diverse populations. 15–25 Since its development, the calculator has been modified to incorporate newly discovered and FDA (Food and Drug Administration) approved markers for prostate cancer, including PCA3 and percent free PSA, using a Bayesian technique to update a risk tool called the LR. 26,27 As these updated PCPTRC calculators became available online, they have also undergone validation studies.…”

A simple-to-use method incorporating genomic markers into prostate cancer risk prediction tools facilitated future validation

“…Single-nucleotide polymorphism numbers on outlying curves correspond to the numbers in Table 1. (16) 0.045 0.006 rs620861 (15) 0.028 0.015 rs10086908 (12) 0.016 0.001 rs10086908 (12) with rs1447295 (17) 0.072 0.0 rs6983267 (16) 0.071 0.0 rs620861 (15) 0.008 0.001 rs6983267 (16) with rs1447295 (17) 0.042 0.008 rs620861 (15) 0.005 0.021 rs2928679 (10) with rs1512268 (11) 0.004 0.01 rs11649743 (22) with rs4430796 (23) 0.014 0.00…”