Can We Trace and Estimate the Technical Progress in Shipping Industry by Using the Cobb-Douglas Production Function?

Γουλιέλμος, Αλέξανδρος Μ.; Giziakis, Constantinos; Sambracos, Evangelos

doi:10.4236/me.2021.1210079

Cited by 4 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 14 publications

(16 reference statements)

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“…Shipping, no doubt, is a par excellence sector-together with shipbuilding-where applied technological progress is embodied (Graph 5) (Goulielmos et al, 2021).…”

Section: The Technological Progress In Shipsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Can the Capitalist System Protect the Shipping Companies from Business Cycles or They Have to Apply an “Anti-Cyclical” Business Policy?

Goulielmos

2023

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We surveyed what was written on "business cycle"-BC by two famous economists: Keynes and Schumpeter; and what was written on: maritime cycle by two maritime/marine economists, less famous: Stopford and Goulielmos! Remarkably, all sources led us to one conclusion: "a BC is caused by demand and supply (of goods & services) intensified or not by local or global Wars and Canal closures!" The BC's duration is definitely changeable. There was a clear tendency, however, for the BC shipping to become shorter, and to arrive sooner, as time went by. Also, the bad times are longer nowadays and the good times depart quickly, except for the so-called exceptional boom (2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008))! The capitalist system permits monopoly profits, and then it takes an unknown time to eliminate them! Ship-owners "enjoyed" the monopoly profits from 2003 to 2008, at a rather desperate previous time. Then, (2001-2), ship-owners were looking at their industry recording 24 business cycles till that time, since 1743, and 1-six yearly cycle, since 1981… Believing that monopoly profits appear once in 60 years in their industry, ship-owners waited for the next boom… which finally arrived ( 2003) 1 . This paper revealed that the monopoly profits of 2003-2008 were responsible for the longer depression by 5 years (2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014)(2015)(2016)(2017)(2018). In the capitalist system, consumption is the steady value, but investment, by resting on businessmen, depends on an agreement between investors' expectations-about efficiency-and their realization of them (Keynes)!

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“…Shipping, no doubt, is a par excellence sector-together with shipbuilding-where applied technological progress is embodied (Graph 5) (Goulielmos et al, 2021).…”

Section: The Technological Progress In Shipsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Can the Capitalist System Protect the Shipping Companies from Business Cycles or They Have to Apply an “Anti-Cyclical” Business Policy?

Goulielmos

2023

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“…The productivity of the fleet is an important, but a neglected concept (Stopford, 2009: p. 721). The The above is mainly an achievement of technological progress (Goulielmos, et al, 2021). Fleet's productivity, between 1987and 2007, and between 2011and 2022, was as follows (Figure 10 and Figure 11).…”

Section: Part Iii: Fleet's Productivitymentioning

confidence: 99%

The Rise and the Fall of the Shipping Industry in 2003-2008 and 2009-2018: The Interrelationship of 7 Maritime Markets

Γουλιέλμος¹

2022

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The main objective of this work was to present the role of 7 maritime markets together, and especially as they stood during the recent exceptional boom (2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008) and the long depression (2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014)(2015)(2016)(2017)(2018). These markets were: shipbuilding, seaborne trade, freight rate, 2 nd hand ship market, demolition, ships laid-up and ports & canals. Usually, maritime economists dealt with one market, or at a maximum with three or four but separately, and so the reader had no opportunity to understand the whole picture. We considered also ourselves lucky to analyze a period where a boom has been followed immediately by a depression! This finding, we believe, will be useful for future as we showed-that the industry is unpredictable as well as cyclical… The world's fleet productivity presented for the first time, and we used it to predict the seaborne trade in 2023. One market which has not received the full attention it deserved, was demolition one-where here it has been analyzed as fully as possible. Finally, we presented the work done by Ports and Canals 1 usually treated separately by the maritime economists! Our method was that of the economic analysis of the Supply and Demand determining whatever price is involved.

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“…Oil suddenly became very expensive after 1973, and since 1979, and from 2000, and at the end of 2021. Shipowners sought the help of technical progress (Goulielmos et al, 2021). Diesel engines use now as mentioned cheap oil (HFO)-a residual product distilled/cracked from the petroleum process.…”

Section: ) Oil As a Marine Fuelmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Decarbonization of the Shipping Industry and the New Fuel Issue

Γουλιέλμος¹

2021

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The efforts of the international community to build the green ships of the future, and modify the present ones, by decarbonizing them, were described. These efforts depend on the joint effort of 7 major global enterprises: marine engine manufacturers, energy providers, marine fuel suppliers, shipyards, classification societies, ports and charterers. To date, 5 fuels have been suggested: LNG, biofuels, ammonia, methanol and hydrogen. Shipowners are happy using the heavy fuel oil (HFO), which they employed for the last 38 years. This was a result of efforts made by engine manufacturers and fuel providers (the seven major oil companies), due to the sudden increases in fuel oil prices in 1973 and 1979. Technology provided more efficient engines, and cheaper new fuel. In 2005, the IMO terminated shipowners' happiness by adopting Annex VI of the MARPOL 1973/1978 International Convention. Shipowners seek now the new fuel to have the following six properties: 1) cheap (as HFO), 2) safe, 3) compatible with the (new) engines, 4) available, 5) of high energy density, and 6) produced in adequate quantities. They most probably will get new fuel, but in the meantime, they have to build dearer, dual-fuel-ready ships, which comply with NO x Tier III regulations. Twenty-five projects are described, which attempted to decarbonize the planet, and shipping. The concept of increasing returns is reintroduced. Environment will improve by itself, we believe, during 2022 and thereafter, due to COVID-19 and the present energy crisis. Nations need to resort to Renewable sources of Energy immediately, and in any event, by 2050. But will the energy crisis act as a brake on economic development?

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Can We Trace and Estimate the Technical Progress in Shipping Industry by Using the Cobb-Douglas Production Function?

Cited by 4 publications

References 14 publications

Can the Capitalist System Protect the Shipping Companies from Business Cycles or They Have to Apply an “Anti-Cyclical” Business Policy?

Can the Capitalist System Protect the Shipping Companies from Business Cycles or They Have to Apply an “Anti-Cyclical” Business Policy?

The Rise and the Fall of the Shipping Industry in 2003-2008 and 2009-2018: The Interrelationship of 7 Maritime Markets

The Decarbonization of the Shipping Industry and the New Fuel Issue

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