Can we sustain success in reducing deaths to extreme weather in a hotter world?

Mehrabi, Zia; Donner, Simon D.; Rios, Patrícia Andréa do Prado; Guha-Sapir, Debarati; Rowhani, Pedram; Kandlikar, Milind; Ramankutty, Navin

doi:10.1016/j.wdp.2019.02.018

Cited by 8 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…Considering the significant challenges posed by climate change, not only in terms of increased frequency and intensity of extreme heat events over time (Auffhammer et al., 2017; Creutzig et al., 2018; IPCC, 2014; Mehrabi et al., 2019), but also the growing importance of humidity in shaping future air conditioning demand (Bhatnagar et al., 2018; Guan, 2009; Holmes et al., 2016; Maia‐Silva et al., 2020; Sailor et al., 2019), we analyze the projected changes in CDDs based on air temperature and contrast them with a similar measure based on heat index (HI), which accounts for both air temperature and humidity. We harness the climate projection data set of five CMIP5‐GCMs under the RCP8.5 for the period of 2031–2050.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Goldilocks Zone in Cooling Demand: What Can We Do Better?

2022

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The higher frequency and intensity of sustained heat events have increased the demand for cooling energy across the globe. Current estimates of summer‐time energy demand are primarily based on Cooling Degree Days (CDD), representing the number of degrees a day's average temperature exceeds a predetermined comfort zone temperature. Through a comprehensive analysis of the historical energy demand data across the USA, we show that the commonly used CDD estimates fall significantly short (±25%) of capturing regional thermal comfort levels. Moreover, given the increasingly compelling evidence that air temperature alone is not sufficient for characterizing human thermal comfort, we extend the widely used CDD calculation to heat index, which accounts for both air temperature and humidity. Our results indicate significant mis‐estimation of regional thermal comfort when humidity is ignored. Our findings have significant implications for the security, sustainability, and resilience of the grid under climate change.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Goldilocks Zone in Cooling Demand: What Can We Do Better?

2022

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“…Natural disasters are broadly classified as infectious disease outbreak, climate-related (hydrometeorologic) or geophysical, and include earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, floods, hurricanes, tornadoes, wildfires, and epidemics [ 1 , 2 , 29 ]. Over the last decades, the incidence of natural disasters is growing, which is mainly caused by an increase of climate-related emergencies [ 29 , 30 ]. Also, the scale of disasters has expanded owing to increased rates of urbanization, environmental degradation, and intensifying climate variables [ 29 ].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

When disasters strike the emergency department: a case series and narrative review

et al. 2021

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Introduction Emergency departments (EDs) are reasonably well prepared for external disasters, such as natural disasters, mass casualty incidents, and terrorist attacks. However, crises and disasters that emerge and unfold within hospitals appear to be more common than external events. EDs are often affected. Internal hospital crises and disasters (IHCDs) have the potential to endanger patients, staff, and visitors, and to undermine the integrity of the facility as a steward of public health and safety. Furthermore, ED patient safety and logistics may be seriously hampered. Methods Case series of 3 disasters within EDs. Narrative overview of the current IHCD-related literature retrieved from searches of PubMed databases, hand searches, and authoritative texts. Discussion The causes of IHCDs are multifaceted and an internal disaster is often the result of a cascade of events. They may or may not be associated with a community-wide event. Examples include fires, floods, power outages, structural damage, information and communication technology (ICT) failures, and cyberattacks. EDs are particularly at-risk. While acute-onset disasters have immediate consequences for acute care services, epidemics and pandemics are threats that can have long-term sequelae. Conclusions Hospitals and their EDs are at-risk for crises and their potential escalation to hospital disasters. Emerging risks due to climate-related emergencies, infectious disease outbreaks, terrorism, and cyberattacks pose particular threats. If a hospital is not prepared for IHCDs, it undermines the capacity of administration and staff to safeguard the safety of patients. Therefore, hospitals and their EDs must check and where necessary enhance their preparedness for these contingencies.

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“…The EM-DAT global disaster dataset used in this study is a free database that contains worldwide records of the occurrence and impact of natural and technological disasters from 1990 at the country level. This database opens new opportunities to link dynamics in natural disasters and the associated economic loss and mortality to ongoing climatic change e.g., [ 42 , 43 ]. However, the EM-DAT dataset consists of information from various sources, and the consistency of the data may be questionable.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Exploring the Relationship between Rising Temperatures and the Number of Climate-Related Natural Disasters in China

Zhu

Fan

2021

IJERPH

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Warming has strongly influenced the quantity and variability of natural disasters around the globe. This study aims to characterize the varying patterns between rising temperatures and climate-related natural disasters in China from 1951 to 2010. We examined the overall trend in the patterns of an 11-year cycle, and climate-related natural disaster responses to periods of rising and dropping temperature. We used Morlet wavelet analysis to determine the length of a temperature cycle period, and the arc elasticity coefficient to assess the number of climate-related natural disasters in response to the changing temperature. We found that: (1) the overall relationship between temperature and the number of climate-related natural disasters was positive; (2) however, on the cycle level, the pattern of climate-related natural disasters was found to be independent of temperature variation; (3) on the rise-drop level, temperature increases were associated with declines in the number of climate-related natural disasters. Moreover, as temperature decreased, the number of climate-related natural disasters increased substantially, such that temperature had a more considerable influence on the quantity of climate-related natural disasters during the temperature-drop period. Findings in this study can help enhance the dissemination of warning and mitigation efforts to combat natural disasters in the changing climate.

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Can we sustain success in reducing deaths to extreme weather in a hotter world?

Abstract: Navin (2019) Can we sustain success in reducing deaths to extreme weather in a hotter world? World Development Perspectives.

Cited by 8 publications

References 32 publications

The Goldilocks Zone in Cooling Demand: What Can We Do Better?

The Goldilocks Zone in Cooling Demand: What Can We Do Better?

When disasters strike the emergency department: a case series and narrative review

Exploring the Relationship between Rising Temperatures and the Number of Climate-Related Natural Disasters in China

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