Can There be Water Scarcity with Abundance of Water? Analyzing Water Stress during a Severe Drought in Finland

Abstract

Severe droughts can affect water security even in countries with ample water resources. In addition, droughts are estimated to become more frequent in several regions due to changing climate. Drought affects many socio-economic sectors (e.g., agriculture, water supply, and industry), as it did in 2018 in Finland. Understanding the basin-wide picture is crucial in drought management planning. To identify vulnerable and water stressed areas in Finland, a water use-to-availability analysis was executed with a reference drought. Water stress was analyzed with the Water Depletion Index WDI. The analysis was executed using national water permits and databases. To represent a severe but realistic drought event, we modelled discharges and runoffs from the worst drought of the last century in Finland (1939)(1940)(1941)(1942). The potential for performing similar analyses in data scarce contexts was also tested using estimates from global models as a screening tool. The results show that the South and Southwest of Finland would have problems with water availability during a severe drought. The most vulnerable areas would benefit from drought mitigation measures and management plans. These measures could be incorporated into the EU River Basin Management Plans.

Severe Drought in Finland: Modeling Effects on Water Resources and Assessing Climate Change Impacts

“…Mines (39 operating mines in Finland in 2016) are located next to the ore deposits, which can be next to head water and smaller water bodies. Water demand and availability during the same reference drought is assessed in more detail by Ahopelto et al [24].…”

“…Ahopelto et al [24] assessed water availability during a severe drought using the Water Depletion Index (WDI), concluding that water stress would be particularly likely in South-Western Finland. This is an area with few lakes and small catchments, but a relatively dense population and large withdrawals due to industry and agriculture.…”

“…This is an area with few lakes and small catchments, but a relatively dense population and large withdrawals due to industry and agriculture. Some individual catchment areas in Southern and Western Finland would also be likely to suffer from water stress during such a drought [24]. These are the areas in which more studies and adaptation are needed.…”

“…Our analysis examined the impact that severe drought could have on Finland's water resources and, consequently, on key water-related sectors. While our analysis focused on hydropower and (ground) water supply, Ahopelto et al [24] studied other water-related sectors, such water availability for industry. While Finland, in general, has natural resilience towards drought thanks to its abundant water resources, a severe drought similar to our reference drought would have significant impacts on energy production (particularly if the drought also affected Sweden and Norway) [13], as well as on food security.…”

“…The aim of this study was to develop and test a methodology for a national-scale drought analysis in Finland, and in this way to improve the understanding of droughts and their impacts on key water-related sectors. This paper was written as part of the same research project as the paper by Ahopelto et al [24], which estimates water availability and water stress in Finland during a severe drought. Ahopelto et al [24] used monthly discharges (without climate change) as input for their water stress analysis, whereas this study estimated the daily discharges and water levels during a severe drought and the consequent impacts on water resources, water supply and hydropower production in Finland, while taking into consideration spatial variance within the country.…”