Can the Target Set for Reducing Childhood Overweight and Obesity Be Met? A System Dynamics Modelling Study in New South Wales, Australia

Abstract

The persistent prevalence of childhood overweight and obesity raises significant concerns about the impact on health, society and the economy. Responding to a target announced in September 2015 by the New South Wales (Australia) Premier to reduce childhood overweight and obesity by five percentage points by 2025, a system dynamics model was developed to support Government and stakeholders responsible for meeting the target. A participatory model building process, drawing cross-sectorial expertise, was undertaken to estimate the individual and combined impact of interventions on meeting the target.The model demonstrated that it is theoretically possible to meet the target by implementing a comprehensive combination of policies and programmes. When limited to existing and enhanced population health interventions, the modelled result did not reach the target. The project provides an example of how participatory simulation modelling can combine a broad range of interventions together into likely scenarios and usefully inform government decision-making.

What Can Policy-Makers Get Out of Systems Thinking? Policy Partners’ Experiences of a Systems-Focused Research Collaboration in Preventive Health

“…The variation in responses is not surprising given the paradigm shift that systems thinking represents, and the perceived lack of robust examples of systems approaches being applied to policy which undermines its value proposition (although we note there are examples, eg, 11,14,27,34,59,[82][83][84][85] ). People make sense of the world given what they know so, without a compelling rationale, we tend to hold on to established mental models and avoid the disruption of seeing the world in radical new ways.…”

Bringing new tools, a regional focus, resource-sensitivity, local engagement and necessary discipline to mental health policy and planning

“…As in other sectors, the application of systems modelling and simulation can drive better decision-making in mental health and suicide prevention by facilitating the exploration of the likely impact of alternative system design and service planning scenarios before they are implemented in the real world. Recent applications [47,56,[58][59][60][61][62][63][64][65][66][67] of these advanced decision support tools have generated new knowledge and insights that are only possible when we use systems thinking and systems modelling methods to bring together the different pieces of a complex puzzle. This puzzle has many pieces, including, for example, research into the broader social and economic determinants of mental health and suicidal behaviour, service barriers and facilitators, and assessment of local needs, evidence regarding effectiveness of mental health models of care and population-based programs, together with disparate, multi-agency data sources, expert and local knowledge, and the deep understanding and unique perspectives of those with lived experience.…”

What does the future hold for chronic disease prevention research?

“…We propose one solution may be ‘decision‐aid tools’, such as systems dynamic modelling, co‐designed and developed by researchers and policymakers 55 . We have seen already the impact of using food systems research for direct policy application 56-58 and developing systems modelling tools that help policymakers answer challenging questions in areas such as alcohol harms, 59 childhood obesity 60 and diabetes during pregnancy 61 . This kind of modelling can assist prevention researchers and policymakers to demonstrate trends, test possible scenarios and project future costs depending on different combinations of interventions and investment by government 62 …”