Can Teachers Predict Delinquency?

Scarpitti, Frank R.

doi:10.1086/460193

Cited by 9 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 4 publications

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“…The present review, however, by considering numerous studies, partly overcomes this problem because the recurrence of particular good predictors across studies may emerge. One such predictor seems to be antisocial or problematic predelinquent behavior at the age of 12 to 14 years (Mitchell & Rosa, 1981;Robins, 1966;Scarpitti, 1964), which improved the prediction of delinquency by about 51% and the prediction of recidivism by about 41%.…”

Section: Early Youth Behavior As a Predictor Of Later Delinquencymentioning

confidence: 99%

Early predictors of male delinquency: A review.

Loeber¹,

Dishion²

1983

Psychological Bulletin

1,305

689

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Section: Early Youth Behavior As a Predictor Of Later Delinquencymentioning

confidence: 99%

Early predictors of male delinquency: A review.

Loeber¹,

Dishion²

1983

Psychological Bulletin

1,305

689

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“…Teacher nominations of potentially delinquent children (Reckless & Dinitz, 1972;Scarpitti, 1964) have yielded high RIOCs (64.4 and 78.0%, respectively). Stott and Wilson (1968) used a teacher rating scale to predict delinquency, but the RIOC was only 27.8%.…”

Section: Prediction Indicesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A problem with nomination techniques such as the ones used by Reckless and Dinitz (1972) and Scarpitti (1964) is that which factors teachers based their nominations on is unclear. In addition to the children's own behavior, they may have included other factors such as socioeconomic status, sibling behavior, or parent behavior.…”

Section: Prediction Indicesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Marsh, 1969Mitchell & Rosa, 1981Mulligan, Douglas, Hammond, & Tizard, 1963Nylander, 1979 Osborn & N'est, 1978 Osborn & West, 1980Polk, 1975 Reckless & Dinitz, 1972Robins, 1966 Robins, Darvish, & Murphy, 1970Robins & Hill, 1966Robins & Ratcliff, 1979 Robins, West, & Herjanic, 1975Rutter, Maugham, Mortimer, & Ouston, 1979Scarpitti, 1964Simcha-Fagan , 1979 Simcha-Fagan, Langner, Gersten, & Eisenberg, 1975Spivack, 1983Stott &Wilson, 1968Tait & Hodges, 1972Thompson, 1952 Trevett, 1972Voss, 1963Wadsworth, 1979Wadsworth, 1980West & Farrington, 1973Wilson & Herbert, 1978Wolfgang, 1977Wolfgang, Figlio, & Sellin, 1972…”

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confidence: 99%

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The use of prediction data in understanding delinquency

Stouthamer‐Loeber¹,

Loeber²

1988

Behavioral Sci & The Law

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Since the early work by the Gluecks (1940, 1950, 1959), efforts have been under way to predict delinquency based on data about behavior in children and the circumstances of their lives. The efforts to predict delinquency can serve several purposes, such as the formulation of theories about child development and the highlighting of early markers of deviancy that can be incorporated in prevention efforts for children at risk for delinquency. Additionally, prediction studies may influence judicial decision making. This chapter summarizes the results of a large number of studies linking earlier child behavior and circumstances in the child's environment with later delinquency. The material presented here combines information from three touthamer-Loeber, 1987), the influence of the family (Loeber & Stouthamer-Loeber, 1986a), and the stability of antisocial behavior (Loeber, 1982). THE PREDICTION OF DELINQUENCY BASED ON EARLIER CHILD BEHAVIORSeveral aspects of children's earlier behavior can be used to predict later delinquency. First, the form or content of early problem behaviors, such as aggression or lying, may be used to predict later delinquency. Second, certain configurations of these early problem behaviors and the circumstances under which they occur can be indicative of an increased risk for delinquency. Early Problem BehaviorsThe following is a summary of an extensive review of studies in which behavior during childhood and adolescence was linked to later delinquency (Loeber & Stouthamer-Loeber, 1987).To compare the results of different studies that used a variety of statistical techniques for categorical data, a uniform measure of predictive power, called relative improvement over chance (RIOC), was applied. RIOC corrects the association between predictor and the outcome variables in a twoby-two table for chance and for maximum values due to discrepancies between the selection ratio applied to the predictor variable and the base rate of the outcome behavi0r.l The range is from 0 to loo%, with 100% indicating perfect predictability.Summarizing a large number of studies has several drawbacks. Different studies use different kinds of populations and target behaviors, and assess these populations at different ages (from 4 to 20 years) and intervals (from 2 to 20 years). On the other hand, by pooling information from many sources, patterns may appear that single studies cannot show. Although some of the studies included females and Blacks, the majority of the studies were concerned with White males. Any conclusions, therefore, will primarily apply to this group. The reader is referred to the original paper for details on the studies that were included in the review.The material is organized in Table 1 by predictors and by sex of the subjects. Studies are summarized by three categories of outcome: delinquency in general, serious delinquency, and recidivism. Delinquency in general includes any kind of offense regardless of seriousness, and may also contain status offenses (but excludes minor traffic offenses); s...

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“…Dans deux cas, on a retenu les prévisions de leurs instituteurs (Reckless et Dinitz, 1972;Scarpitti, 1964), qui se sont avérées utiles avec des taux d'ARH élevés (64,4 et 78 respectivement). Pour leur part, Stott et Wilson (1968) ont utilisé une échelle sur laquelle les instituteurs étaient appelés à situer leurs élèves par rapport au risque de délinquance, mais le taux ARH 1 de ce score multiple ne fut que de 27,8 %.…”

Section: Les Indices De Prédictionunclassified

La prédiction de la délinquance

Loeber¹,

Stouthamer‐Loeber²

2005

crimino

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The paper presents the results of a meta-analysis to analyze which predictors of delinquency in males and females are consistently evident from longitudinal studies, and how the predictors compare in their predictive efficiency. The results show that a variety of conduct problems but also conditions within the family are predictive of later delinquency in general, recidivism, or serious offenses. As a rule, composite indicators of risk factors outperformed single indicators. Data is presented on the early identification of chronic offenders. The results are critically examined in terms of error rates, and in terms of future directions for research

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Can Teachers Predict Delinquency?

Cited by 9 publications

References 4 publications

Early predictors of male delinquency: A review.

Early predictors of male delinquency: A review.

The use of prediction data in understanding delinquency

La prédiction de la délinquance

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