Can Predictive Algorithms Assist Decision‐Making in Social Work with Children and Families?

Abstract

Decision support systems (DSS) which incorporate algorithms trained using administrative data have been promoted as the next promising development in initiatives to improve and assist decision‐making in social work with children and families. In this article, research and grey literature about DSS designed, and in some cases implemented, in the USA, the Netherlands, Australia and New Zealand are analysed to assess the extent to which they are currently able to meet this promise. The challenges of developing DSS for social work are identified and ideas are suggested to overcome them. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Key Practitioner Messages Decision support systems (DSS) are being developed for social work with children and families and they may transform how decisions are made with important consequences for both service users and the profession. Current DSS are mostly not very accurate in their predictions and further work is required in their development and on the data used to train the algorithms. The next stage in the development of DSS will require long‐term commitment by social workers to work in collaboration with data scientists and researchers. It will also be expensive. Social workers need to lead the debate about whether DSS are worth the investment.

Professional Knowledge, Skills and Beliefs in Safeguarding Children and Young People

“…There are also ethical issues associated with ‘using data for a purpose other than that for which they were [originally] collected’ (Gillingham, , p. 122). Gillingham () concludes his paper by suggesting that further debate is required around this issue as the development of DSS is likely to be an expensive and long‐term process. He concludes by noting that:

‘It could be argued that professionals are already good enough at assessing who… service users might be, with or without actuarial risk assessment tools.

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“…‘Decision support systems (DSS) which incorporate algorithms trained using administrative data have been promoted as the next promising development in initiatives to improve and assist decision‐making in social work with children and families.’ (Gillingham, , p. 114)…”

“…The papers included in this issue of Child Abuse Review are an eclectic mix, but all provide important learning in the field of child maltreatment. Our third paper by Philip Gillingham () from Brisbane, Australia, examines the potential use of predictive algorithms to assist decision‐making in social work practice with children and families. This is clearly a highly contentious area fuelled by technological developments and advancements in the management of big data.…”

“…Gillingham () who is involved with a four‐year research programme supported by an Australian Research Council Future Fellowship is investigating how electronic information systems are designed and used in the social welfare sector. He claims that:

‘Decision support systems (DSS) which incorporate algorithms trained using administrative data have been promoted as the next promising development in initiatives to improve and assist decision‐making in social work with children and families.’ (Gillingham, , p. 114)

In the paper, Gillingham () draws on examples of DSS designed, and in some cases implemented, in the Netherlands, USA, Australia and New Zealand, and looks at some of their challenges. The paper outlines how most current DSS that use administrative data, or ready‐made datasets, have limited predictive accuracy and, therefore, are not useful in real‐world practice.…”

“…Devine () has previously highlighted the dual dangers of algorithmic predictions: inaccuracy and victimisation. There are also ethical issues associated with ‘using data for a purpose other than that for which they were [originally] collected’ (Gillingham, , p. 122). Gillingham () concludes his paper by suggesting that further debate is required around this issue as the development of DSS is likely to be an expensive and long‐term process.…”