Can Piketty’s Interest Rate – Growth Rate Framework Explain Increasing Income Inequality in Pakistan?

Abstract

Inequality in income distribution has important ramifications for economic growth, development, and social justice (see Atkinson (2000), Piketty (2013), Milanovic (2016), etc.). Piketty (2013) explains the phenomena of growing income inequality in high-income countries by comparing the interest rates (r) and growth rates (g) over time. The crux of the argument is that since the upper income groups generate a significantly greater proportion of their income from investments as compared to lower income groups (due to higher savings rate compared to lower income group), interest rates performing better than the national income growth rates in the high-income countries in the post-cold war era (r-g) explain growing income inequality in these countries. This paper examines the use of this methodology to explain income inequality in Pakistan. It compares the evolution of income of the top 20 percent of Pakistan’s population with the income of the bottom 20 percent, using Piketty’s lens of interest rate growth rate dynamics. Empirical results show that r-g methodology does not capture the income distribution dynamics of Pakistan. Upper income group appears to be negatively affected by increases in interest rates as compared to the lower income group. Prices, international trade, taxes, and financial development tend to be the leading reasons for reducing the impact of r and g framework to explain the income distribution. This paper makes novel contributions to the methodology and implications of Piketty’s framework for studying income inequality in small, open, less developed countries like Pakistan.