Can Next-Generation Vehicles Sustainably Survive in the Automobile Market? Evidence from Ex-Ante Market Simulation and Segmentation

Abstract

Introduced autonomous and connected vehicles equipped with emerging technologies are expected to change the automotive market. In this study, using stated preference (SP) data collected from choice experiments conducted in Korea with a mixed multiple discrete-continuous extreme value model (MDCEV), we analyzed how the advent of next-generation of vehicles with advanced vehicle technologies would affect consumer vehicle choices and usage patterns. Additionally, ex-ante market simulations and market segmentation analyses were conducted to provide specific management strategies for next-generation vehicles. The results showed that consumer preference structures of conventional and alternative fuel types primarily differed depending on whether they were drivers or non-drivers. Additionally, although the introduction of electric vehicles to the automobile market is expected to negatively affect the choice probability and mileage of other vehicles, it could have a positive influence on the probability of purchasing an existing conventional vehicle if advanced vehicle technologies are available.

Modelling the consumer decision‐making process to identify key drivers and bottlenecks in the adoption of environmentally friendly products

“…According to Kim and Huh (2016), the number of charging stations for electric vehicles in Korea was 337 (2.38%) in 2016, compared to 14 135 fuel stations. In addition, the accessibility of charging stations positively affects the consumer purchasing decision (Byun, Shin, & Lee, 2018;Shin, Hong, Jeong, & Lee, 2012;Shin, Lim, Kim, & Choi, 2018). Therefore, the Government should increase the number of charging stations for electric vehicles.…”

Investigation on the Possibility of Increasing the Environmental Safety and Fuel Efficiency of Vehicles by Means of Gasoline Nano-Additive

“…Despite a slight increase in the share of alternative fuels and energy sources, due to the efficiency of using traditional fuels in internal combustion engines and the adaptability of the existing vehicle fleet to their application, the petroleum-based fuels will remain the dominant energy sources in the nearest future. The study on the impact of emerging next-generation vehicles with smart vehicle technologies on the vehicle market [9] revealed that the cars using conventional motor fuels would keep their current position. The problem of the ecological danger of fuels and their combustion products requires one to look for integrated solutions, including new approaches in car and engine constructions [10]; improving the technological parameters of transport, with emphasis on multi-material construction for weight reduction [11]; increasing the adaptability of vehicles to operating conditions [12], in particular under weather changes [13], with application of such instruments as the dynamic vehicle scheduling [14]; tightening international and national requirements for fuel quality [15][16][17], use of tax instruments [3,[18][19][20][21].…”

The Selection of Green Technology Innovations under Dual-Credit Policy

“…As observed in the literature studying GTIs, most of them focus on one type of GTI, namely the energy-saving technology for FV [6,23,24] or the electric-vehicle technology [1,8,[20][21][22]25]. On the other hand, our paper considers both of them while the firm could choose to adopt one or two types.…”