Can Large‐Scale Climatic Models Be Linked with Multiscale Ecological Studies?*

Root, Terry L.; Schneider, Stephen H.

doi:10.1046/j.1523-1739.1993.07020256.x

Cited by 91 publications

(60 citation statements)

References 53 publications

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“…By definition, averaging environmental information to determine values at a larger grid-cell size results in loss of information within the averaged area. Such loss of information often causes overestimates of potentially suitable areas and may fail to capture many habitat features, including, for example, information about microhabitats that are important to species in an area (Root and Schneider 1993, Ko et al 2009, Wiens and Bachelet 2010. Other uncertainties, such as mismatches in an overall geographic range of a species in a specific area, may occur when the grid-cell size used to predict species distributions is large (Wiens et al 2009).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global Change Projections for Taiwan Island Birds: Linking Current and Future Distributions

Lee¹,

Ko²,

Root³

et al. 2012

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The earth is warming rapidly. Species around the world must adapt to the increasing heat and to the rapid rate of temperature change. Decision makers and managers must aid species to adapt and to keep up with the changes if they are not able to do so on their own. Special attention needs to be paid to small islands because they are at high risk for the loss of unique and threatened systems and species, and face habitat loss as a consequence of climate-induced rises in sea level. In this study, we examined 17 endemic avian species on the island of Taiwan. Bird observations from 1993 to 2004 were compared to modeled distributions for 2020, 2050, 2080 and 2100. We used 5 general circulation models (CCCMA, CCSR, EHAM4, GFDL, and HADCM3) for the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change A2 and B2 scenarios. Results show that the distributions of 15 out of 17 species are predicted to shift up in elevation with warming. As the lower distributional limits contract to higher elevation, the upper edge of their current distributions cannot shift up in elevation because they were already near or at the tops of the mountains. Consequently, their distributions are predicted to shrink over time. The median elevation of each of these species' distributions is higher than the median elevation of all available habitats on Taiwan. In addition, we find that a few common species are predicted to become rare species under climate change. Two of the 17 species examined are not near the tops of the mountains and are the only species that have median elevations of their distributions lower than the median of all available habitats on Taiwan. These 2 species are predicted to expand the upper-elevation distribution limit but not to contract the lower-elevational ReseARCh ARTICLe Launched to accelerate biodiversity conservationA peer-reviewed open-access journal Chia-Ying Ko et al. / Nature Conservation 2: 21-40 (2012) 22 limit, which results in a widening of their distributions. Hence, we suggest that the median elevation of a species' current distribution plays a key rule and can be further used as an index of the response birds most likely will exhibit as the temperature increases.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global Change Projections for Taiwan Island Birds: Linking Current and Future Distributions

Lee¹,

Ko²,

Root³

et al. 2012

Self Cite

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“…Experts in each domain could model a particular aspect of biology in detail and reuse the previously assembled models to represent other aspects, where coarse granularity might be sufficient. This approach follows that developed in other contexts, for example in other areas of biology (19)(20)(21) and in the Earth system modeling community. In that case, submodels for the atmosphere, ocean, ice sheets, and the land surface are coupled; their interactions and dynamics are then evaluated against independent observations (22).…”

Section: Significancementioning

confidence: 99%

Multiscale digital Arabidopsis predicts individual organ and whole-organism growth

Chew

Wenden

Flis

et al. 2014

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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Significance Plants respond to environmental change by triggering biochemical and developmental networks across multiple scales. Multiscale models that link genetic input to the whole-plant scale and beyond might therefore improve biological understanding and yield prediction. We report a modular approach to build such models, validated by a framework model of Arabidopsis thaliana comprising four existing mathematical models. Our model brings together gene dynamics, carbon partitioning, organ growth, shoot architecture, and development in response to environmental signals. It predicted the biomass of each leaf in independent data, demonstrated flexible control of photosynthesis across photoperiods, and predicted the pleiotropic phenotype of a developmentally misregulated transgenic line. Systems biology, crop science, and ecology might thus be linked productively in a community-based approach to modeling.

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“…Massive degradation of forests in response to global warming has also been reported from many parts of the world (Uniyal & Uniyal 2009). The consequences of these changes may be attributed not only to the high temperatures, but perhaps to the rate of population increase (Root & Schneider 1993), changes in mortality rates, shortening of seasons, and a consequent increase of annual generations (Kiritani 2006).…”

Section: Global Warming and Insectsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ecological modeling and pest population management: a possible and necessary connection in a changing world

Lima¹,

Ferreira²,

Godoy³

2009

Neotrop. entomol.

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RESUMO -A modelagem ecológica é uma ferramenta importante para a investigação de padrões de comportamento dinâmico em populações, interações trófi cas e também em ecologia comportamental. Contudo, os padrões ecológicos que refl etem tendências de oscilação populacional muitas vezes não são claramente visíveis sem instrumentos analíticos, como os modelos ecológicos. Dessa forma, a modelagem ecológica exerce papel fundamental na descrição de processos demográfi cos importantes para a dinâmica populacional. Os modelos ecológicos, além de tornarem possível a visualização de padrões ecológicos, podem também revelar padrões de persistência populacional nos diversos sistemas trófi cos, incluindo as relações presa-predador ou hospedeiro-parasitóide, interações comumente presentes em programas de manejo integrado de pragas. Neste fórum apresentamos os principais aspectos ecológicos importantes para a construção de modelos e implementação de programa de manejo de pragas em insetos. Em particular, analisamos a combinação entre modelos hospedeiro-parasitóide e o conceito de nível de dano em escala espaço-temporal. Como conclusão sobre a combinação de modelos, evidencia-se que a estrutura espacial é essencial para modelos desta natureza, já que sua introdução no sistema altera signifi cativamente os valores de nível de dano econômico. PALAVRAS-CHAVE: Ecologia teórica, manejo integrado de pragas, modelo matemáticoABSTRACT -Ecological modeling is an important tool for investigating dynamic behavior patterns in populations, trophic interactions, and behavioral ecology. However, the ecological patterns that refl ect population oscillation trends are often not clearly visible without analytical instruments such as ecological models. Thus, ecological modeling plays a fundamental role in describing demographic processes that are important for population dynamics. Ecological models, besides making possible the visualization of ecological patterns, may also reveal patterns of population persistence in many trophic systems, including prey-predator or host-parasitoid relationships, interactions that are commonly present in integrated pest management programs. In this forum, we present the main ecological aspects important for model building and implementation of integrated pest management programs for insects. Particularly, in this study, we analyze the combination between host-parasitoid models and the concept of economic threshold level on a spatio-temporal scale. As a conclusion about the model combination, spatial structure is essential for models of this nature, since its introduction into the system signifi cantly alters the economic threshold-level values.

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Can Large‐Scale Climatic Models Be Linked with Multiscale Ecological Studies?*

Cited by 91 publications

References 53 publications

Global Change Projections for Taiwan Island Birds: Linking Current and Future Distributions

Global Change Projections for Taiwan Island Birds: Linking Current and Future Distributions

Multiscale digital Arabidopsis predicts individual organ and whole-organism growth

Ecological modeling and pest population management: a possible and necessary connection in a changing world

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