Can land-use change mitigate long-term flood risks in the Prairie Pothole Region? The case of Devils Lake, North Dakota, USA

Kharel, Gehendra; Zheng, Haochi; Kirilenko, Andrei

doi:10.1007/s10113-016-0970-y

Cited by 26 publications

(26 citation statements)

References 56 publications

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“…More research is needed to bridge the gap between technical solution and their relevance for the people to implement them. Another solution to address the issue of the projected decrease in BW is the use of grass and alfalfa lands to dampen run-off (Kharel, Zheng, & Kirilenko, 2016). This technique limits run-off and increases deep aquifer recharge, which has a buffer effect against climate change (Vouillamoz, Lawson, Yalo, & Descloitres, 2015).…”

Section: Recommendationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling blue and green water availability under climate change in the Beninese Basin of the Niger River Basin, West Africa

Badou

Diekkrüger

Kapangaziwiri

et al. 2018

Hydrological Processes

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The aim of this study was to quantify climate change impact on future blue water (BW) and green water (GW) resources as well as the associated uncertainties for 4 subbasins of the Beninese part of the Niger River Basin. The outputs of 3 regional climate models (HIRHAM5, RCSM, and RCA4) under 2 emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were downscaled for the historical period (1976–2005) and for the future (2021–2050) using the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM). Comparison of climate variables between these 2 periods suggests that rainfall will increase (1.7% to 23.4%) for HIRHAM5 and RCSM under both RCPs but shows mixed trends (−8.5% to 17.3%) for RCA4. Mean temperature will also increase up to 0.48 °C for HIRHAM5 and RCSM but decrease for RCA4 up to −0.37 °C. Driven by the downscaled climate data, future BW and GW were evaluated with hydrological models validated with streamflow and soil moisture, respectively. The results indicate that GW will increase in all the 4 investigated subbasins, whereas BW will only increase in one subbasin. The overall uncertainty associated with the evaluation of the future BW and GW was quantified through the computation of the interquartile range of the total number of model realizations (combinations of regional climate models and selected hydrological models) for each subbasin. The results show larger uncertainty for the quantification of BW than GW. To cope with the projected decrease in BW that could adversely impact the livelihoods and food security of the local population, recommendations for the development of adequate adaptation strategies are briefly discussed.

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Section: Recommendationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling blue and green water availability under climate change in the Beninese Basin of the Niger River Basin, West Africa

Badou

Diekkrüger

Kapangaziwiri

et al. 2018

Hydrological Processes

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“…On the other hand, Kang et al [8] and others indicated increased crop production with a modest rise in average temperature of 1-3 • C, but decreasing yields above this range. From the hydrological modeling perspective, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) [11] has been used to assess quality and quantity issues [12,13] to identify critical source areas [14] and impacts on crop-yield [15,16] due to changes in climate and land uses in order to suggest improved management practices [17].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected Climate Could Increase Water Yield and Cotton Yield but Decrease Winter Wheat and Sorghum Yield in an Agricultural Watershed in Oklahoma

Gharibdousti

Kharel

Miller

et al. 2019

Water

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Climate change impacts on agricultural watersheds are highly variable and uncertain across regions. This study estimated the potential impacts of the projected precipitation and temperature based on the downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP-5) on hydrology and crop yield of a rural watershed in Oklahoma, USA. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool was used to model the watershed with 43 sub-basins and 15,217 combinations of land use, land cover, soil, and slope. The model was driven by the observed climate in the watershed and was first calibrated and validated against the monthly observed streamflow. Three statistical matrices, coefficient of determination (R 2 ), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), and percentage bias (PB), were used to gauge the model performance with satisfactory values of R 2 = 0.64, NS = 0.61, and PB = +5% in the calibration period, and R 2 = 0.79, NSE = 0.62, and PB = −15% in the validation period for streamflow. The model parameterization for the yields of cotton (PB = −4.5%), grain sorghum (PB = −27.3%), and winter wheat (PB = −6.0%) resulted in an acceptable model performance. The CMIP-5 ensemble of three General Circulation Models under three Representative Concentration Pathways for the 2016-2040 period indicated an increase in both precipitation (+1.5%) and temperature (+1.8 • C) in the study area. This changed climate resulted in decreased evapotranspiration (−3.7%), increased water yield (23.9%), decreased wheat yield (−5.2%), decreased grain sorghum yield (−9.9%), and increased cotton yield (+54.2%) compared to the historical climate. The projected increase in water yield might provide opportunities for groundwater recharge and additional water to meet future water demand in the region. The projected decrease in winter wheat yield-the major crop in the state-due to climate change, may require attention for ways to mitigate these effects.

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“…As snow is important in this study area, the snow fall and snowmelt parameter values were calibrated first following Kharel et al . (). Among the 11 subwatersheds, only the following 6 have USGS gauging stations for daily streamflow (red dots in Figure ): Mauvais Coulee Tributary Number 3 (M.C.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 97%

“…This time span was chosen because of the availability of data needed to drive the model. As snow is important in this study area, the snow fall and snowmelt parameter values were calibrated first following Kharel et al (2016). Among the 11 subwatersheds, only the following 6 For each subwatershed with a gauging station a baseflow recession constant value was calculated after separating stream baseflow from measured daily streamflow using the automated web GIS-based hydrograph analysis tool -WHAT (Lim et al, 2005).…”

Section: Swat Calibration and Validationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling Water Quantity and Sulfate Concentrations in the Devils Lake Watershed Using Coupled SWAT and CE‐QUAL‐W2

Shabani

Zhang

Ell

2017

J American Water Resour Assoc

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Devils Lake is an endorheic lake in the Red River of the North basin in northeastern North Dakota. During the last two decades, the lake water level has risen by nearly 10 m, causing floods that have cost more than 1 billion USD in mitigation measures. Another increase of approximately 1.5 m in the lake water level would cause spillage into the Sheyenne River. To alleviate this potentially catastrophic spillage, two artificial outlets were constructed. However, the artificial drainage of water into the Sheyenne River raises water quality concerns because the Devils Lake water contains significantly higher concentrations of dissolved solids, particularly sulfate. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was coupled with the CE‐QUAL‐W2 model to simulate both water balance and sulfate concentrations in the lake. The SWAT model performed well in simulating daily flow in tributaries with ENS > 0.5 and |PBIAS| < 25%, and reproduced the lake water level with a root mean square error of 0.35 m for the study period from 1995 to 2014. The water temperature and sulfate concentrations simulated by CE‐QUAL‐W2 for the lake are in general agreement with the field observations. The model results show that the operation of the two outlets since August 2005 has lowered the lake level by 0.70 m. Furthermore, the models show pumping water from the two outlets raises sulfate concentrations in the Sheyenne River from ~100 to >500 mg/L. Editor's note: This paper is part of the featured series on SWAT Applications for Emerging Hydrologic and Water Quality Challenges. See the February 2017 issue for the introduction and background to the series.

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Can land-use change mitigate long-term flood risks in the Prairie Pothole Region? The case of Devils Lake, North Dakota, USA

Cited by 26 publications

References 56 publications

Modelling blue and green water availability under climate change in the Beninese Basin of the Niger River Basin, West Africa

Modelling blue and green water availability under climate change in the Beninese Basin of the Niger River Basin, West Africa

Projected Climate Could Increase Water Yield and Cotton Yield but Decrease Winter Wheat and Sorghum Yield in an Agricultural Watershed in Oklahoma

Modeling Water Quantity and Sulfate Concentrations in the Devils Lake Watershed Using Coupled SWAT and CE‐QUAL‐W2

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