Can China change the Arctic regime?

Abstract

China’s role in the Arctic regime remains a debatable topic in the expert discourse on the High North. Currently, in view of the aggravated conflicts in other regions that include Russia as the largest Arctic state, and China as its strategic partner, the Arctic regimes are experiencing salient disturbances. Against this backdrop, an understanding of China’s opportunities to affect Arctic affairs is urgently needed. We address this issue by combining political and legal analyses. We used the regime theory approach to outline the Arctic regime complex (ARC), and through this lens, we discuss the recent changes that are being observed. Based on this, we determine China’s actual potential for making amendments to the ARC. We conclude that China has no capacity to make a crucial shift in the ARC, but it is still able to alter particular rules, like those related to Arctic Ocean management and scientific cooperation. The further efficient operation of the Arctic Council will play a decisive role in envisaging China’s behaviour in the region.