Can aerosols spin down the water cycle in a warmer and moister world?

Liepert, Beate G.; Feichter, J.; Lohmann, Ulrike; Roeckner, Erich

doi:10.1029/2003gl019060

Cited by 221 publications

(190 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…Of the 24 Indian Global Energy Reduction in Surface Evaporation. A reduction in surface solar radiation can lead to a reduction in surface evaporation (6,7,13) because Ϸ50-85% of the radiative heating at the surface is balanced by evaporation (22). The simulated evaporation decreased from both the land and the adjacent NIO (Fig.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…ABC radiative forcing can cool the surface (4)(5)(6)(7)(8), stabilize the atmosphere (9,10), and reduce evaporation (6,7) and rainfall (6,7,11). Because aerosols have short lifetimes of a week or two, they are concentrated close to their sources in the Northern Hemisphere and thus cool the Northern Hemisphere oceans relative to the Southern Hemisphere oceans.…”

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confidence: 99%

“…Only recently have we become aware that absorbing aerosols, particularly BC, can potentially play a major role in the global scale reduction of rainfall (6,7).…”

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confidence: 99%

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Atmospheric brown clouds: Impacts on South Asian climate and hydrological cycle

Ramanathan

Chung

Kim

et al. 2005

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

1,294

1,001

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South Asian emissions of fossil fuel SO2 and black carbon increased Ϸ6-fold since 1930, resulting in large atmospheric concentrations of black carbon and other aerosols. This period also witnessed strong negative trends of surface solar radiation, surface evaporation, and summer monsoon rainfall. These changes over India were accompanied by an increase in atmospheric stability and a decrease in sea surface temperature gradients in the Northern Indian Ocean. We conducted an ensemble of coupled oceanatmosphere simulations from 1930 to 2000 to understand the role of atmospheric brown clouds in the observed trends. The simulations adopt the aerosol radiative forcing from the Indian Ocean experiment observations and also account for global increases in greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols. The simulated decreases in surface solar radiation, changes in surface and atmospheric temperatures over land and sea, and decreases in monsoon rainfall are similar to the observed trends. We also show that greenhouse gases and sulfates, by themselves, do not account for the magnitude or even the sign in many instances, of the observed trends. Thus, our simulations suggest that absorbing aerosols in atmospheric brown clouds may have played a major role in the observed regional climate and hydrological cycle changes and have masked as much as 50% of the surface warming due to the global increase in greenhouse gases. The simulations also raise the possibility that, if current trends in emissions continue, the subcontinent may experience a doubling of the drought frequency in the coming decades.aerosols ͉ black carbon ͉ regional climate change

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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confidence: 99%

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Atmospheric brown clouds: Impacts on South Asian climate and hydrological cycle

Ramanathan

Chung

Kim

et al. 2005

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

1,294

1,001

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“…Higher hydrological sensitivities as a result of strong surface forcings caused by aerosols are found in previous studies, which investigates the effect of increasing aerosol emissions between pre-industrial and present day times (e.g. Liepert et al 2004;Feichter et al 2004;Allen and Ingram 2002). Increasing GHG concentrations in combination with increasing aerosol concentrations lead to the paradox, that global annual mean precipitation decreases, despite increasing temperatures.…”

Section: Temperature Response and Climate Sensitivitymentioning

confidence: 95%

A GCM study of future climate response to aerosol pollution reductions

et al. 2009

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We use the global atmospheric GCM aerosol model ECHAM5-HAM to asses possible impacts of future air pollution mitigation strategies on climate. Air quality control strategies focus on the reduction of aerosol emissions. Here we investigate the extreme case of a maximum feasible end-of-pipe abatement of aerosols in the near term future (2030) in combination with increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations. The temperature response of increasing GHG concentrations and reduced aerosol emissions leads to a global annual mean equilibrium temperature response of 2.18 K. When aerosols are maximally abated only in the Industry and Powerplant sector, while other sectors stay with currently enforced regulations, the temperature response is 1.89 K. A maximum feasible abatement applied in the Domestic and Transport sector, while other sectors remain with the current legislation, leads to a temperature response of 1.39 K. Increasing GHG concentrations alone lead to a temperature response of 1.20 K. We also simulate 2-5% increases in global mean precipitation among all scenarios considered, and the hydrological sensitivity is found to be significantly higher for aerosols than for GHGs. Our study, thus highlights the huge potential impact of future air pollution mitigation strategies on climate and supports the need for urgent GHG emission reductions. GHG and aerosol forcings are not independent as both affect and are influenced by changes in the hydrological cycle. However, within the given range of changes in aerosol emissions and GHG concentrations considered in this study, the climate response towards increasing GHG concentrations and decreasing aerosols emissions is additive.

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“…This effort is justified, since, via the surface energy balance, decadal changes in SWIR affect the surface temperature, the hydrological cycle, and ecosystems [e.g., Wild et al, 1996Wild et al, , 2004Wild et al, , 2007Wild et al, , 2008Ramanathan et al, 2001a;Liepert et al, 2004;Robock and Li, 2006].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Decadal changes in shortwave irradiance at the surface in the period from 1960 to 2000 estimated from Global Energy Balance Archive Data

Gilgen¹,

Roesch²,

Wild³

et al. 2009

J. Geophys. Res.

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Decadal changes in shortwave irradiance at the Earth's surface are estimated for the period from approximately 1960 through to 2000 from pyranometer records stored in the Global Energy Balance Archive. For this observational period, estimates could be calculated for a total of 140 cells of the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project grid (an equal area 2.5° × 2.5° grid at the equator) using regression models allowing for station effects. In large regions worldwide, shortwave irradiance decreases in the first half of the observational period, recovers from the decrease in the 1980s, and thereafter increases, in line with previous reports. Years of trend reversals are determined for the grid cells which are best described with a second‐order polynomial model. This reversal of the trend is observed in the majority of the grid cells in the interior of Europe and in Japan. In China, shortwave irradiance recovers during the 1990s in the majority of the grid cells in the southeast and northeast from the decrease observed in the period from 1960 through to 1990. A reversal of the trend in the 1980s or early 1990s is also observed for two grid cells in North America, and for the grid cells containing the Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia), Singapore, Casablanca (Morocco), Valparaiso (Chile) sites, and, noticeably, the remote South Pole and American Samoa sites. Negative trends persist, i.e., shortwave radiation decreases, for the observational period 1960 through to 2000 at the European coasts, in central and northwest China, and for three grid cells in India and two in Africa.

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Can aerosols spin down the water cycle in a warmer and moister world?

Cited by 221 publications

References 23 publications

Atmospheric brown clouds: Impacts on South Asian climate and hydrological cycle

Atmospheric brown clouds: Impacts on South Asian climate and hydrological cycle

A GCM study of future climate response to aerosol pollution reductions

Decadal changes in shortwave irradiance at the surface in the period from 1960 to 2000 estimated from Global Energy Balance Archive Data

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