Can adoption of rooftop solar panels trigger a utility death spiral? A tale of two U.S. cities

Muaafa, Mohammed; Adjali, Iqbal; Bean, Patrick; Fuentes, Rolando; Kimbrough, Steven O.; Murphy, Frederic H.

doi:10.1016/j.erss.2017.06.041

Cited by 47 publications

(33 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…The rest of the neighborhood may follow suit as well. This phenomenon has been studied by coupling GIS and agent-based modeling to describe the adoption rates, i.e., diffusion, of DG systems and how the perception and behavior of neighbors towards PV may change if a nearby house installs a DG system [44,45].…”

Section: Review and Motivationmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Upper Limit of Distributed Solar PV Capacity in Riyadh: A GIS-Assisted Study

Elshurafa

Muhsen

2019

Sustainability

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Rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) systems, commonly referred to as distributed generation (DG) solar systems, are deemed important contenders in future sustainable cities. Because deploying DG systems is associated with technical, financial, policy, and market implications that impact utilities, governments, and businesses, quantifying the potential of DG systems that could be deployed in a certain jurisdiction ex ante helps inform the decision-making process for all stakeholders. To that end, the upper limit of rooftop PV systems that could be deployed in Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia, was assessed with the aid of geographic information systems (GIS). By relying on urban land lot data for different categories, i.e., zones, and the maximum allowable area that could be built within a certain lot using prevailing building codes and regulations, the rooftop area suitable for PV deployment within Riyadh Metro was quantified. The analysis was restricted to rooftops in residential, mosque, shopping mall, and health care buildings only. Following the quantification of the rooftop area, the upper limit of rooftop solar PV capacity that can be deployed in the city of Riyadh was found to be 4.34 GW. This capacity represents nearly 22% of the peak load and can satisfy approximately 9% of the energy requirement in the central region, the region in which Riyadh resides. Sustainability 2019, 11, 4301 2 of 20Akin to any technology, both DG and utility-scale PV bring about strengths and weaknesses. Utility-scale solar farms, for example, benefit from economies of scale and are easier for electricity companies to manage from a central planning perspective [14]. However, land availability makes utility-scale deployment difficult within cities and even more so in city centers.On the other side of the spectrum, DG scale solar systems surmount the large land area requirements, and empower the consumer [15]. As the homeowner (or industrial facility, for example) self-consumes whatever is generated, this reduces the electricity bill. Further, if exporting energy back to the grid is possible and is compensated for, then the homeowner, depending on his consumption level [16], can receive credit for the exported energy [17]. This consumer empowerment [18], which transforms him/her to a prosumer (i.e., a consumer and a producer simultaneously), is of particular appeal especially in countries where the prevailing electricity prices are high. On the other hand, DG systems could cause instabilities in the distribution network [19], and hence, the electric utility has to adopt new operational procedures to avoid such incidents.Governments that have promoted renewable energy deployment were generally propelled by three main drivers: Reducing carbon emissions, boosting the economy by creating a renewable energy industry and creating jobs, and achieving higher energy security levels [20]. These objectives would be achieved by tying them to a renewable energy target installation capacity, and this target would have stemmed from a grand strateg...

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Section: Review and Motivationmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Upper Limit of Distributed Solar PV Capacity in Riyadh: A GIS-Assisted Study

Elshurafa

Muhsen

2019

Sustainability

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“…Utilities have faced the perspective that customers will reduce their electricity purchases as they adopt solar photovoltaic generation and may enter a positive feedback loop (spiral of death) [17]. Finding financial balance can be a problem, as consumers subsidize solar energy adopters, who transfer costs to other network participants [18].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Currently, consumers who opt for a distributed generation still rely on the electricity supply of the energy distributors in the moments that their system is not in operation, leading the system operator to assume the technical responsibility for those systems [19] and mitigate economical and financial impacts. Distribution system operators can avoid high costs and reduced revenues if they understand the motivators for consumers to join the photovoltaic system [17]. In this context, understanding how photovoltaic energy has been spreading can be a competitive advantage for distribution system operators [20].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Factors for Measuring Photovoltaic Adoption from the Perspective of Operators

et al. 2020

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The diffusion of photovoltaic distributed generation is relevant for addressing the political, economic, and environmental issues in the electricity sector. However, the proliferation of distributed generation brings new administrative and operational challenges for the sustainability of electric power utilities. Electricity distributors operate in economies of scale, and the high photovoltaic penetration means that these companies have economic and financial impacts, in addition to influencing the migration of other consumers. Thus, this paper aims to systematically identify and evaluate critical factors and indicators that may influence electricity distributors in predicting their consumers' adoption of photovoltaic technology, which were subjected to the analysis of 20 industry experts. Results show that the cost of electricity, generation capacity, and cost of the photovoltaic systems are the most relevant indicators, and it is possible to measure a considerable part of them using the internal data of the electricity distributors. The study contributes to the understanding of the critical factors for the forecast of the adoption of consumers to distributed photovoltaic generation, to assist the distribution network operators in the decision making, and the distribution sustainability. Also, it establishes the theoretical, political, and practical implications for the Brazilian scenario and developing countries.

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“…However, most of those households will still need to use the networks to draw power from the grid if their system fails. A pay-as-you-go scheme would not reflect the opportunity cost of idle infrastructure and could lead to a utility bankruptcies if the way this back-up power is priced stays the same (Felder and Athawale 2014;Muaafa et al 2017). Traditionally, network costs are bundled into the price of electricity.…”

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confidence: 99%

Using Insurance to Manage Reliability in the Distributed Electricity Sector: Insights From an Agent-Based Model

Fuentes¹,

Sengupta²

2019

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The King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (KAPSARC) is a non-profit global institution dedicated to independent research into energy economics, policy, technology and the environment, across all types of energy. KAPSARC's mandate is to advance the understanding of energy challenges and opportunities facing the world today and tomorrow, through unbiased, independent, and high-caliber research for the benefit of society. KAPSARC is located in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

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Can adoption of rooftop solar panels trigger a utility death spiral? A tale of two U.S. cities

Cited by 47 publications

References 16 publications

The Upper Limit of Distributed Solar PV Capacity in Riyadh: A GIS-Assisted Study

The Upper Limit of Distributed Solar PV Capacity in Riyadh: A GIS-Assisted Study

Factors for Measuring Photovoltaic Adoption from the Perspective of Operators

Using Insurance to Manage Reliability in the Distributed Electricity Sector: Insights From an Agent-Based Model

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