California drought increases CO2 footprint of energy

Hardin, Elizabeth C.; AghaKouchak, Amir; Qomi, Mohammad Javad Abdolhosseini; Madani, Kaveh; Tarroja, Brian; Zhou, Yuyu; Yang, Tiantian; Samuelsen, Scott

doi:10.1016/j.scs.2016.09.004

Cited by 39 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 14 publications

(11 reference statements)

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“…This will likely increase the vulnerability of the electric power industry, which should prepare to absorb the additional agricultural energy load. In addition, increased electricity production is likely to be associated with increased greenhouse gas emissions (as observed in other parts of the world, e.g., California [50]). From a long-term sustainability perspective, however, it is critical to recognize the extensive and widespread groundwater table decline as a serious warning signal to implement adaptive agricultural water management measures to mitigate, or better yet, prevent future socioeconomic repercussions (e.g., job losses) associated with exhausting high-quality or marginal-quality groundwater.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Groundwater‒Energy‒Food Nexus in Iran’s Agricultural Sector: Implications for Water Security

Mirzaei

Saghafian

Mirchi

et al. 2019

Water

100

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This paper presents the first groundwater‒energy‒food (GEF) nexus study of Iran’s agronomic crops based on national and provincial datasets and firsthand estimates of agricultural groundwater withdrawal. We use agronomic crop production, water withdrawal, and energy consumption data to estimate groundwater withdrawal from electric-powered irrigation wells and examine agronomic productivity in Iran’s 31 provinces through the lens of GEF nexus. The ex-post GEF analysis sheds light on some of the root causes of the nation’s worsening water shortage problems. Access to highly subsidized water (surface water and groundwater) and energy has been the backbone of agricultural expansion policies in Iran, supporting employment in agrarian communities. Consequently, water use for agronomic crop production has greatly overshot the renewable water supply capacity of the country, making water bankruptcy a serious national security threat. Significant groundwater table decline across the country and increasing energy consumption underscore dysfunctional feedback relations between agricultural water and energy price and groundwater withdrawal in an inefficient agronomic sector. Thus, it is essential to implement holistic policy reforms aimed at reducing agricultural water consumption to alleviate the looming water bankruptcy threats, which can lead to the loss of numerous agricultural jobs in the years to come.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Groundwater‒Energy‒Food Nexus in Iran’s Agricultural Sector: Implications for Water Security

Mirzaei

Saghafian

Mirchi

et al. 2019

Water

100

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“…Electricity generation requires water resources to drive turbines in hydroelectric dams and to cool thermoelectric power plants that are fueled by nuclear, coal or natural gas. This dependence on water makes the electricity sector vulnerable to droughts (van Vliet et al 2012, 2016b, Bartos and Chester 2015, Voisin et al 2016, Gleick 2017, Hardin et al 2017, Miara et al 2017, Eyer and Wichman 2018.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The increased use of fossil fuel power plants for peak generation induced by droughts may last from months to years, which can lead to significant increases in pollutant emissions from the electricity sector (Gleick 2017, Hardin et al 2017, Eyer and Wichman 2018. In addition, decreased in-state electricity generation due to droughts may increase the need to import electricity from neighboring states (van Vliet et al 2013, Voisin et al 2016), potentially causing remote increases in pollution.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Recent plant-scale econometric analyses found a positive relationship between water scarcity and emissions from the US electricity sector (Eyer and Wichman 2018), and for the recent California drought (Gleick 2017, Hardin et al 2017. Eyer and Wichman (2018) found that in the Western Interconnection, (2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014)(2015) of in-state net-generation from hydropower, natural gas, coal, nuclear, petroleum, and solar and wind (combined); and average yearly deficits and surplus of in-state electricity generation compared to total electricity sales.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Response of electricity sector air pollution emissions to drought conditions in the western United States

Herrera-Estrada

Diffenbaugh

Wagner

et al. 2018

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Water is needed for hydroelectric generation and to cool thermoelectric power plants. This dependence on water makes electricity generation vulnerable to droughts. Furthermore, because power sector CO 2 emissions amount to approximately one third of total US emissions, droughts could influence the interannual variability of state-and national-scale emissions. However, the magnitude of drought-induced changes in power sector emissions is not well understood, especially in the context of climate mitigation policies. Using multivariate linear regressions, we find that droughts are positively correlated to increases in electricity generation from natural gas in California, Idaho, Oregon, and Washington; and from coal in Colorado, Montana, Oregon, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming. Using a statistical model, we estimate that this shift in generation sources led to total increases in regional emissions of 100 Mt of CO 2 , 45 kt of SO 2 , and 57 kt of NO x from 2001 to 2015, most of which originated in California, Oregon, Washington, and Wyoming. The CO 2 emissions induced by droughts in California, Idaho, Oregon, and Washington amounted to 7%-12% of the total CO 2 emissions from their respective power sectors, and the yearly rates were 8%-15% of their respective 2030 yearly targets outlined in the Clean Power Plan (CPP). Although there is uncertainty surrounding the CPP, its targets provide appropriate reference points for climate mitigation goals for the power sector. Given the global importance of hydroelectric and thermoelectric power, our results represent a critical step in quantifying the impact of drought on pollutant emissions from the power sector-and thus on mitigation targets-in other regions of the world.

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“…The opposite is also plausible; heavy rains in the arid west of the United States connected to the 1997-1998 El Niño event are thought to have contributed to increased hydropower output, leading to reduced energy costs (Changnon 1999). Although regional impact may be relatively small, the cumulative impact can be staggering (Hardin et al 2017), especially when multiple regions are affected by ENSO simultaneously. The scale of these impacts is likely to depend on both the magnitude of the hydropower production shortfall and the relative importance of hydropower in regional energy supplies.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%