Calibrating and assessing uncertainty in coastal numerical models

Simmons, Joshua A.; Harley, Mitchell D.; Marshall, Lucy; Turner, Ian L.; Splinter, Kristen D.; Cox, Ron

doi:10.1016/j.coastaleng.2017.04.005

Cited by 54 publications

(46 citation statements)

References 57 publications

(133 reference statements)

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“…As has been previously noted, XBeach is particularly sensitive to choices of facAs and facSk e.g., [68][69][70]-often requiring separate parameter combinations for accretional and erosional conditions e.g., [53]. Preliminary model core testing (not shown) did not yield realistic behavior when using constant facAs and facSk for the full year period.…”

Section: Calibration Proceduresmentioning

confidence: 90%

“…As the wave shape is not directly simulated, the effect of wave nonlinearity on sediment transport is parameterized via the short-wave-related velocity asymmetry (facAs) and skewness (facSk) coefficients. Many studies provide guidance on the effects of facAs and facSk on simulating erosional and accretional processes with XBeach e.g., [68][69][70]. Mean currents and long waves also contribute to sediment transport.…”

Section: Xbeachmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Exploring Marine and Aeolian Controls on Coastal Foredune Growth Using a Coupled Numerical Model

Cohn

Hoonhout

Goldstein

et al. 2019

JMSE

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Coastal landscape change represents aggregated sediment transport gradients from spatially and temporally variable marine and aeolian forces. Numerous tools exist that independently simulate subaqueous and subaerial coastal profile change in response to these physical forces on a range of time scales. In this capacity, coastal foredunes have been treated primarily as wind-driven features. However, there are several marine controls on coastal foredune growth, such as sediment supply and moisture effects on aeolian processes. To improve understanding of interactions across the land-sea interface, here the development of the new Windsurf-coupled numerical modeling framework is presented. Windsurf couples standalone subaqueous and subaerial coastal change models to simulate the co-evolution of the coastal zone in response to both marine and aeolian processes. Windsurf is applied to a progradational, dissipative coastal system in Washington, USA, demonstrating the ability of the model framework to simulate sediment exchanges between the nearshore, beach, and dune for a one-year period. Windsurf simulations generally reproduce observed cycles of seasonal beach progradation and retreat, as well as dune growth, with reasonable skill. Exploratory model simulations are used to further explore the implications of environmental forcing variability on annual-scale coastal profile evolution. The findings of this work support the hypothesis that there are both direct and indirect oceanographic and meteorological controls on coastal foredune progradation, with this new modeling tool providing a new means of exploring complex morphodynamic feedback mechanisms.

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Section: Calibration Proceduresmentioning

confidence: 90%

Section: Xbeachmentioning

confidence: 99%

Exploring Marine and Aeolian Controls on Coastal Foredune Growth Using a Coupled Numerical Model

Cohn

Hoonhout

Goldstein

et al. 2019

JMSE

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“…For process-based simulation models that are used to predict short-term beach response to storms, model boundary conditions (e.g., waves and water levels) are relatively well known to high spatial and temporal resolutions, and so statistical techniques to manage the not insignificant uncertainty that is introduced by the selected parameterisation of complex models are of particular importance [77]. For behaviour-based models that are typically used to predict long-term shoreline change, similar techniques have been demonstrated to manage uncertainty in boundary conditions and model parameterisation [78][79][80][81].…”

Section: Uncertainty Managementmentioning

confidence: 99%

Second-Pass Assessment of Potential Exposure to Shoreline Change in New South Wales, Australia, Using a Sediment Compartments Framework

Kinsela

Morris

Linklater

et al. 2017

JMSE

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Abstract:The impacts of coastal erosion are expected to increase through the present century, and beyond, as accelerating global mean sea-level rise begins to enhance or dominate local shoreline dynamics. In many cases, beach (and shoreline) response to sea-level rise will not be limited to passive inundation, but may be amplified or moderated by sediment redistribution between the beach and the broader coastal sedimentary system. We describe a simple and scalable approach for estimating the potential for beach erosion and shoreline change on wave-dominated sandy beaches, using a coastal sediment compartments framework to parameterise the geomorphology and connectivity of sediment-sharing coastal systems. We apply the approach at regional and local scales in order to demonstrate the sensitivity of forecasts to the available data. The regional-scale application estimates potential present and future asset exposure to coastal erosion in New South Wales, Australia. The assessment suggests that shoreline recession due to sea-level rise could drive a steep increase in the number and distribution of asset exposure in the present century. The local-scale example demonstrates the potential sensitivity of erosion impacts to the distinctive coastal geomorphology of individual compartments. Our findings highlight that the benefits of applying a coastal sediment compartments framework increase with the coverage and detail of geomorphic data that is available to parameterise sediment-sharing systems and sediment budget principles. Such data is crucial to reducing uncertainty in forecasts by understanding the potential response of key sediment sources and sinks (e.g., the shoreface, estuaries) to sea-level rise in different settings.

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“…The drawbacks generated by the model in the calibration process are associated with the uncertainty of the parameters because the different sets of possible parameter values can have similar performance values (Loosvelt 205 et al, 2014;Mazzoleni et al, 2015;Ballinas-González, Alcocer-Yamanaka and Pedrozo-Acuña, 2016). For this reason, a Monte Carlo analysis (He et al, 2012;Simmons et al, 2017) has been used to estimate the best sets of parameters that generate a better performance. For this purpose, a data sampling with uniform distribution based on the interval reported in Table 1 was used.…”

Section: Parameter Estimationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydrological Modeling in Tropical Regions via TopModel. Study Case: Central Sector of the Middle Magdalena Valley - Colombia

Arenas-Bautista¹,

Arboleda-Obando²,

Duque-Gardeazabal³

et al. 2018

Preprint

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Hydrological modeling allows us to make a comprehensive assessment of the interaction between dynamics of the hydrological cycle, climate conditions, and land use. These modeling results are relevant in water resources management field. We use TopModel (TOPography based hydrological MODEL for the hydrological 15 modeling of an area of 17 000 km 2 in the Middle Magdalena Valley (MMV), a tropical basin located in Colombia.This study is located in the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) which is characterized by special meteorological conditions and fast water fluxes over the year. This area has been subjected to significant land use changes, as a result of intense economic activities, e.g., agriculture, hydropower energy and oil & gas production (Avellaneda, 2003). The proposed model is based on a record of 12 years of: i.) daily precipitation data from observed gauges, ii.) 20 daily evapotranspiration data from temperature data and iii.) daily streamflow data as observed data. A calibration process was performed using data from 2000 to 2008, and a validation was performed with data from 2009 to 2012.The Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient was used as an objective function to assess the quality of these processes (values of this metric are between 0.74 and 0.73 respectively, for model calibration and validation). The results show us an adequate performance of the model in areas of the tropical region and allow us to analyze the relationship between 25 water storage capacity in the soils of the area with subsurface runoff. This conclusion is consistent with the characteristics of the region. The calibrated model provides an idea about the hydrological functioning of the basin and estimates an approximation of the groundwater recharge in the region. The estimation of the recharge is important to quantify the interaction of surface water and groundwater, especially during the dry season, due to its importance in the analysis of scenarios with climate variability. 30

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Calibrating and assessing uncertainty in coastal numerical models

Cited by 54 publications

References 57 publications

Exploring Marine and Aeolian Controls on Coastal Foredune Growth Using a Coupled Numerical Model

Exploring Marine and Aeolian Controls on Coastal Foredune Growth Using a Coupled Numerical Model

Second-Pass Assessment of Potential Exposure to Shoreline Change in New South Wales, Australia, Using a Sediment Compartments Framework

Hydrological Modeling in Tropical Regions via TopModel. Study Case: Central Sector of the Middle Magdalena Valley - Colombia

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