Calibrating Agro-Hydrological Model under Grazing Activities and Its Challenges and Implications

Abstract

Recently, the Agricultural Policy Extender (APEX) model was enhanced with a grazing module, and the modified grazing database, APEXgraze, recommends sustainable livestock farming practices. This study developed a combinatorial deterministic approach to calibrate runoff-related parameters, assuming a normal probability distribution for each parameter. Using the calibrated APEXgraze model, the impact of grazing operations on native prairie and cropland planted with winter wheat and oats in central Oklahoma was assessed. The existing performance criteria produced four solutions with very close values for calibrating runoff at the farm outlet, exhibiting equifinality. The calibrated results showed that runoff representations had coefficients of determination and Nash–Sutcliffe efficiencies >0.6 in both watersheds, irrespective of grazing operations. Because of non-unique solutions, the key parameter settings revealed different metrics yielding different response variables. Based on the least objective function value, the behavior of watersheds under different management and grazing intensities was compared. Model simulations indicated significantly reduced water yield, deep percolation, sediment yield, phosphorus and nitrogen loadings, and plant temperature stress after imposing grazing, particularly in native prairies, as compared to croplands. Differences in response variables were attributed to the intensity of tillage and grazing activities. As expected, grazing reduced forage yields in native prairies and increased crop grain yields in cropland. The use of a combinatorial deterministic approach to calibrating parameters offers several new research benefits when developing farm management models and quantifying sensitive parameters and uncertainties that recommend optimal farm management strategies under different climate and management conditions.