Cabinet Reshuffles in Latin America: A Function of Presidential Reputation

Abstract

In this article we propose an innovative comparative analysis of cabinet reshuffles in Latin American presidential systems, focusing on personal incentives as drivers of ministerial turnover. We analyse when and why risks of reputational damage to a president drive cabinet changes. These risks are contingent and dependent upon the interaction between a president's reputational assets, on the one hand, and the high ‘walk-away value’ of the minister, on the other. We argue that ministerial turnover is a function of presidents' political and reputational resources as well as of exogenous factors. However, who is fired from the cabinet depends on the ministers' walk-away values and how threatened the president feels by them. We analyse cabinet changes in single-party and multiparty presidential governments in Latin America. Our results confirm the explanatory power of personal incentives to better understand the mechanisms that drive cabinet reshuffles.

The Comparative Politics of Cabinet Reshuffles

“…The article by Magna Inácio, Mariana Llanos and Bruno Pinheiro focuses on the personal incentives of presidents as drivers of cabinet reshuffles. In this piece, covering single-party and multiparty presidential governments across Latin America, cabinet changes are identified as being primarily a function of the political and reputational resources that presidents can bring to bear (Inácio et al 2022).…”