C02 Emission Reduction in Canada: Results from an Energy System Model

Abstract

Canada is committed to st abilizin g emISSIO ns of greenhouse gases at 1990 levels by the year 2000. This paper examines the costs and benef its of meeting the key component of this commitment : energt;-related carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions. The analysis uses a dynamic linear programming meihodologv to produce a processoriented, techno-economic model of the Canadian energt) system for the period 1990-2030. Three scenarios are analyzed to investigate the effects of sectoral vs. overall limit s on C02 emissions compared to a "business-asusual" (BAU) base case. The results from this work point to least-cost routes to CO 2 emission reduction, as well as addressing the issue of "equity vs. efficiency" in achieving the reductions. Potential collateral benefit s to emission reduction are also discussed.Le Canada s'est engage aramenerles emissions de gaz a effet de serre aleur nioeau de 1990 avant l'an 2000 . Cet article examine les coit ts et les aoantages en [eu pour concretiser la composanie cle cet engagement: les emissions energetiques de dioxyd e de carbone (C02 )'L'analyse utilise une methodologie de programmation lineaire dynamique afin de produire un modele technoeconomique, axe sur Ie processus, du systhne energetique canadien pour la periode 1990-2030. Trois scenarios soni : analyses pour eiudier les effets des limiies seciorielles et, aI'inverse, celles globales, des emissions de C02 par rapport aun scenario de ref erence "maintien du statuquo" (MSQ) . Les resultats de ce travail indiquent l'ex istence de circuits moins collteux pour reduire les emissions de C02; ils abordent aussi la question d' ''egalite par opposition aefficacite" pour paroenir aces reductions. Les aoaniages collaieraux potentiels lies ala reduction des emissions font egalement I'objet d'une discussion. J.D. We lls is Research Associate and H-H . Rogn er isDirector, Sy ste ms A nal ysi s a t the In stitute fo r In teg ra ted Ener gy Sy stems , University of Victoria, British Co lum bia Energy Stud ies