Butterfly catastrophe model for wheat aphid population dynamics: Construction, analysis and application

Wu, Weihong; Piyaratne, M.K.D.K.; Zhao, Hongwei; Li, Chunlong; Hu, Zhengqiang; Hu, Xiang-Shun

doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2014.05.017

Cited by 11 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…There is much non-linearity prevalent; there are far more than the minimum two state variables required for chaos; the equations are non-autonomous; and the intrinsic time scales of the dynamics of the aphid sub-model and the tree sub-model are very different and incommensurate [ 42 , 43 ]. This chaotic variety indicates that focusing on management/control strategies in order to minimize adverse consequences may be difficult, even with the assistance of a process-based model (or further consideration of chaotic aphid population dynamics see [ 44 – 48 ]). Rutherford Aris [ 49 ] succinctly summed up this problem as follows (pp.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate sensitivity of the complex dynamics of the green spruce aphid—Spruce plantation interactions: Insight from a new mechanistic model

Thornley

Newman

2022

PLoS ONE

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Aphids can have a significant impact on the growth and commercial yield of spruce plantations. Here we develop a mechanistic deterministic mathematical model for the dynamics of the green spruce aphid (Elatobium abietum Walker) growing on Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis (Bong.) Carr.). These grow in a northern British climate in managed plantations, with planting, thinning and a 60-year rotation. Aphid infestation rarely kills the tree but can reduce growth by up to 55%. We used the Edinburgh Forest Model (efm) to simulate spruce tree growth. The aphid sub-model is described in detail in an appendix. The only environmental variable which impacts immediately on aphid dynamics is air temperature which varies diurnally and seasonally. The efm variables that are directly significant for the aphid are leaf area and phloem nitrogen and carbon. Aphid population predictions include dying out, annual, biennual and other complex patterns, including chaos. Predicted impacts on plantation yield of managed forests can be large and variable, as has been observed; they are also much affected by temperature, CO2 concentration and other climate variables. However, in this system, increased CO2 concentration appears to ameliorate the severity of the effects of increasing temperatures coupled to worsening aphid infestations on plantation yield.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate sensitivity of the complex dynamics of the green spruce aphid—Spruce plantation interactions: Insight from a new mechanistic model

Thornley

Newman

2022

PLoS ONE

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“…For aphid pests, abiotic factors, presence, and abundance of natural enemies and aphid identification modules are built into DSS models such as GETLAUS, CEAS, and APHIDSim (Gosselke et al 2001 ; Piyaratne et al 2013 ; Rossing et al 1994 ; Gonzalez-Andujar et al 1993 ; Kwon and Kim 2017 ). Aside from theoretical models (Wu et al 2014 ; Fabre et al 2010 ; Ma et al 2001 ; Xian et al 2007 ; Giarola et al 2006 ), spatially explicit models can account for landscape composition and configuration, or for other factors such as wind speed and wind direction (Parry et al 2006 ). Thresholds have been defined for wireworms (Furlan 2014 ), brown planthopper (Zheng et al 2007 ) and for different cotton pests, including A. gossypii (Silvie et al 2013 ; Sequeira and Naranjo 2008 ).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

An update of the Worldwide Integrated Assessment (WIA) on systemic pesticides. Part 4: Alternatives in major cropping systems

Veres

Wyckhuys

Kiss

et al. 2020

Environ Sci Pollut Res

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We present a synthetic review and expert consultation that assesses the actual risks posed by arthropod pests in four major crops, identifies targets for integrated pest management (IPM) in terms of cultivated land needing pest control and gauges the implementation “readiness” of non-chemical alternatives. Our assessment focuses on the world’s primary target pests for neonicotinoid-based management: western corn rootworm (WCR, Diabrotica virgifera virgifera ) in maize; wireworms ( Agriotes spp.) in maize and winter wheat; bird cherry-oat aphid ( Rhopalosiphum padi ) in winter wheat; brown planthopper (BPH, Nilaparvata lugens ) in rice; cotton aphid ( Aphis gossypii ) and silver-leaf whitefly (SLW, Bemisia tabaci ) in cotton. First, we queried scientific literature databases and consulted experts from different countries in Europe, North America, and Asia about available IPM tools for each crop-pest system. Next, using an online survey, we quantitatively assessed the economic relevance of target pests by compiling country-level records of crop damage, yield impacts, extent of insecticide usage, and “readiness” status of various pest management alternatives (i.e., research, plot-scale validation, grower-uptake). Biological control received considerable scientific attention, while agronomic strategies (e.g., crop rotation), insurance schemes, decision support systems (DSS), and innovative pesticide application modes were listed as key alternatives. Our study identifies opportunities to advance applied research, IPM technology validation, and grower education to halt or drastically reduce our over-reliance on systemic insecticides globally. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1007/s11356-020-09279-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

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“…There is much non-linearity prevalent; there are far more than the minimum two state variables required for chaos; the equations are non-autonomous; and the intrinsic time scales of the dynamics of the aphid sub-model and the tree sub-model are very different and incommensurate [43,44]. This chaotic variety indicates that focusing on management/control strategies in order to minimize adverse consequences may be difficult, even with the assistance of a process-based model (for further consideration of chaotic aphid population dynamics see [45][46][47][48][49]).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change and the complex dynamics of green spruce aphid–spruce plantation interactions

Jhm

Newman

2021

Preprint

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Aphids can have a significant impact on the growth and commercial yield of spruce plantations. Here we develop a mechanistic deterministic mathematical model for the dynamics of the green spruce aphid (Elatobium abietum Walker) growing on Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis (Bong.) Carr.). These grow in a northern British climate in managed plantations, with planting, thinning and a 60-year rotation. Aphid infestation rarely kills the tree but can reduce growth by up to 55%. We used the Edinburgh Forest Model (efm) to simulate spruce tree growth. The aphid sub-model is described in detail in an appendix. The only environmental variable which impacts immediately on aphid dynamics is air temperature which varies diurnally and seasonally. The efm variables that are directly significant for the aphid are leaf area and phloem nitrogen and carbon. Aphid population predictions include dying out, annual, biennual and other complex patterns, including chaos. Predicted impacts on plantation yield of managed forests can be large and variable, as has been observed; they are also much affected by temperature, CO 2 concentration and other climate variables. However increased CO 2 concentration appears to ameliorate the severity of the effects of increasing temperatures coupled to worsening aphid infestations on plantation yield.

show abstract

Butterfly catastrophe model for wheat aphid population dynamics: Construction, analysis and application

Cited by 11 publications

References 17 publications

Climate sensitivity of the complex dynamics of the green spruce aphid—Spruce plantation interactions: Insight from a new mechanistic model

Climate sensitivity of the complex dynamics of the green spruce aphid—Spruce plantation interactions: Insight from a new mechanistic model

An update of the Worldwide Integrated Assessment (WIA) on systemic pesticides. Part 4: Alternatives in major cropping systems

Climate change and the complex dynamics of green spruce aphid–spruce plantation interactions

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