But Wait, There’s More! Maximizing Substantive Inferences from TSCS Models

Williams, Laron K.; Whitten, Guy D.

doi:10.1017/s0022381612000473

Cited by 74 publications

(66 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…10/2, December 2018 ISSN 2073-4859 with a multitude of lags and lagged first differences, the ability to interpret the effect on y, given a change in a regressor, can become even more difficult. One of the easiest ways of getting a sense of the effect of the shockvar on y is through plotting the simulation results (Tomz et al, 2003;Breunig and Busemeyer, 2012;Williams and Whitten, 2012;Philips et al, 2015Philips et al, , 2016Gandrud et al, 2015;Blackwell and Glynn, 2018;Choirat et al, 2018). To this end, we offer two more functions: area.simulation.plot and spike.simulation.plot.…”

Section: Gaining Substantive and Statistical Significance Of Results mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…10/2, December 2018 ISSN 2073-4859 provide an alternative to direct hypothesis testing of coefficients, instead focusing on simulating meaningful counterfactuals from model coefficients many times and drawing inferences from the central tendencies of the simulations. Such simulations are becoming increasingly popular with increased computing power, as demonstrated in the social sciences by recent methodological and applied work (Tomz et al, 2003;Breunig and Busemeyer, 2012;Williams and Whitten, 2012;Philips et al, 2015Philips et al, , 2016Gandrud et al, 2015;Choirat et al, 2018).…”

Section: The General Ardl Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Dynamic Simulation and Testing for Single-Equation Cointegrating and Stationary Autoregressive Distributed Lag Models

Jordan¹,

Philips²

2019

The R Journal

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While autoregressive distributed lag models allow for extremely flexible dynamics, interpreting the substantive significance of complex lag structures remains difficult. In this paper we discuss dynamac (dynamic autoregressive and cointegrating models), an R package designed to assist users in estimating, dynamically simulating, and plotting the results of a variety of autoregressive distributed lag models. It also contains a number of post-estimation diagnostics, including a test for cointegration for when researchers are estimating the error-correction variant of the autoregressive distributed lag model.

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Section: Gaining Substantive and Statistical Significance Of Results mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: The General Ardl Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamic Simulation and Testing for Single-Equation Cointegrating and Stationary Autoregressive Distributed Lag Models

Jordan¹,

Philips²

2019

The R Journal

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“…Our theoretical expectations are focused on the effects of debates on vote intentions. An effective way of depicting the dynamic nature of these relationships is with dynamic simulations (Williams and Whitten, ). After establishing a simulation scenario for the control variables, scholars can “shock” the system by changing one of the values of the explanatory variables (in this case, a debate dummy) at time

t = 1

, and then observing how the vote intention series changes over future time periods.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Making and Breaking Party Leaders? An Informational Theory of Temporary and Lasting Impacts of Prime Minister Debates in Spain

Sagarzazu

Williams

2017

Social Science Quarterly

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Objective. In this project, we develop an informational theory that identifies which prime minister debates are the most meaningful in terms of shifting Spanish public opinion . We argue that debates immediately following the installation of new leaders (because they shine light on leadership traits) and debates occurring in times of crisis (because voters can judge both the leader's ability to remedy the problems and their policy proposals) will have the largest short-and long-term effects. Methods. We use seemingly unrelated regression to explore the impacts of 15 Spanish State of the Nation debates from 1998 to 2016 on vote intention for Partido Popular (PP) and the Partido Socialista Obrero Espanol (PSOE). Result. Debates following the installation of new party leaders often produce sizable improvements in vote intention, but the most meaningful debates occur during economic crises. Conclusion. Parliamentary debates are valuable opportunities for party leaders to shift public opinion in their favor, a fact that is not lost to them considering the time and energy devoted to crafting strategies, and the media's fascination with providing extensive coverage of the debates. This study has important implications for the study of dynamic processes (such as vote intention), and the link between parties' strategic communications and voting behavior.

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“…Public policy scholars can use simulation and visual aids in order to present their results intuitively and effectively. Following King et al (2000) (also Williams and Whitten, 2012), we use our estimates to produce counterfactual simulations and then display their conditional first difference and 90 percent confidence bands (Adolph, 2012). In the following graphs, we consider the counterfactual of a 0.5 standard deviation increase in an independent variable.…”

Section: Inference and Theory Testingmentioning

confidence: 99%