Business cycles, expectations and inflation in Brazil: A New-Keynesian Phillips curve analysis

Arruda, Elano Ferreira; Olivindo, Maria Thalita Arruda Oliveira de; Castelar, Ivan

doi:10.18356/295f47b6-en

Cited by 2 publications

References 22 publications

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The relationship between the short-term and long-term Phillips curve for the Czech Republic

Wang

Vochоzka

Rousek

2022

Investment Management and Financial Innovations

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Inflation in Czech Republic in 2021 significantly deviated from the tolerance band. Although the economic results are lagging behind expectations, inflationary pressures, mainly from abroad, are still intensifying. At the same time, the rapid rise in consumer prices affects not only households and consumers, but also business and companies. As is known, a very important tool for understanding inflation is the Phillips curve, which shows the relationship between two variables, the first one is inflation and the second one is unemployment. The aim of this paper is to research the relationship between the short-term Philips curves and long-term Phillips curves for the Czech Republic. For this purpose, data on the inflation rate and unemployment rate between 1993 and 2018 were contrasted based on data published by the Czech Statistical Office. The short-term Phillips curve was assumed under adaptive expectation conditions, whereby a regression analysis was undertaken using SPSS statistical software to determine suitable values for the corresponding parameters. In addition, and in accordance with the trend figure and data description figure for both the unemployment rate variable and inflation rate variable, the basis for the development of the long-term Phillips curve is described. Subsequently, it is concluded that a mutually substitutive relationship exists with regards to the short-term and that the long-term is an irregular circular curve that moves in a clockwise direction.

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The relationship between the short-term and long-term Phillips curve for the Czech Republic

Wang

Vochоzka

Rousek

2022

Investment Management and Financial Innovations

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Inflation Expectations Measurement and its Effect on Inflation Dynamics in Colombia

Sanchez-Jabba,

Villabon-Hinestroza,

Romero-Torres

2023

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Accurate measurement of inflation expectations is crucial due to its significant impact on inflation dynamics and the potential for biased estimates when using different measurement methods. The main objective of this study is to determine whether the effect of inflation expectations on inflation dynamics in Colombia depends on the measurement method employed. We achieve this by estimating New-Keynesian Phillips Curves using various measurement methods for inflation expectations employing data from financial markets, economic surveys, and macroeconomic models. Our analysis focuses on any differences in the statistical significance and magnitude of the effects of inflation expectations on inflation dynamics using different measurement methods. Our results reveal that while all measures of inflation expectations have a statistically significant effect, the magnitude of the effect varies depending on the measurement method employed. Specifically, market-based expectations have a more substantial effect on inflation dynamics compared to survey-based and model-based expectations.

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Business cycles, expectations and inflation in Brazil: A New-Keynesian Phillips curve analysis

Cited by 2 publications

References 22 publications

The relationship between the short-term and long-term Phillips curve for the Czech Republic

The relationship between the short-term and long-term Phillips curve for the Czech Republic

Inflation Expectations Measurement and its Effect on Inflation Dynamics in Colombia

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