Business cycle targeting in the light of Keynesian tradition: a view from the 21st century

KHOKHYCH, Dmytro

doi:10.15407/etet2020.02.082

Cited by 1 publication

(1 citation statement)

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“…[7],. Matrosova L, [8], Pasichnyi M. [9], Khokhych D. [10] note the low level of effectiveness of the central monetary policy in the context of credit market regulation, because the monetary regime of inflation targeting quite often leads to unjustified growth interest rates on bank loans, and also increases the interest of banks in placing their assets in government securities and certificates of deposit.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparative analysis of bank lending to non-financial corporations under the conditions of inflation targeting

Korneev¹,

Volodymyr²,

Kucherenko³

2022

Eureka: SH

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The influence of the interest policy of the National Bank of Ukraine on the dynamics of lending to non-financial corporations during the period of using the monetary regime of fixed exchange rate and inflation targeting is considered. It has been proven, that the use of the symmetric corridor of the interest policy of the National Bank of Ukraine has a negative effect on the volume of lending to non-financial corporations, since high rates on deposit certificates of the National Bank of Ukraine create a risk-free and highly profitable instrument for the placement of bank assets, which discourages lending to the real sector of the economy. The absence of a connection between the interest rate policy and the dynamics of the consumer price index and the money supply during the period of inflation targeting is substantiated, which made it possible to prove the low level of effectiveness of the chosen monetary regime. The aim of the article is to study the problems of bank lending to non-financial corporations of Ukraine in the conditions of inflation targeting and to develop proposals for its stimulation, taking into account foreign experience. Methods. The methodological basis of the work is the dialectical method of cognition, the position of the theory of monetary policy and credit. The work uses methods of economic and mathematical statistics and methods of correlation analysis to analyze the features of lending to non-financial corporations and the impact of inflation targeting on the dynamics of bank lending; generalization methods for formulating research conclusions. Results. The monetary regime of inflation targeting is quite often recommended by the International Monetary Fund for implementation in countries with emerging markets as a basic set of central bank tools for regulating inflation and ensuring price stability. However, in conditions of import dependence of the national economies of countries with emerging markets, in addition to changes in the money supply and credit activity of banks, the dynamics of export-import operations and the volume of official reserve assets, which determine the level of the exchange rate, have a decisive influence on the dynamics of the consumer price index, and it, in turn, determines the level of prices for imported goods and services. Neglecting the non-monetary factors of supply inflation during the implementation of the interest policy leads to the limitation of bank lending to non-financial corporations, which in turn reduces the ability of enterprises to increase capital investments at the expense of bank loans, as well as to develop domestic production with high added value and to implement the policy of import substitution. Therefore, for this purpose, it is necessary to use the asymmetric corridor of the central bank's interest policy and stimulate targeted bank lending to non-financial corporations.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%