Business cycle duration dependence and foreign recessions

Bondt, Gabe de; Vermeulen, Philip

doi:10.1111/sjpe.12261

Cited by 8 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…Since the European Union does not constitute a fiscal union, it is in line with the expectations that the response to recessions is less effective in Europe. However, the American and European markets are not isolated and interact with each other, and therefore their business cycles are correlated [46]. Still, the difference in efficiency of adjustment processes can be perceived in our results.…”

Section: Plos Onementioning

confidence: 61%

Assessing the time intervals between economic recessions

2020

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Economic recessions occur with varying duration and intensity and may entail substantial losses in terms of GDP, employment, household income, and investment spending. In this work, we propose a statistical model for the time intervals between recessions that accounts for the state of the economy and the impact of market adjustments and regulatory changes. The model uses a generalized renewal process based on the Gumbel distribution (GuGRP) in which times between consecutive events are conditionally independent. We also present a novel goodness of fit test tailored to the GuGRP that validates the use of the statistical model for the analysis of recessions. Analyzing recessions in the U.S. and Europe, we demonstrate that the statistical model characterizes well recession inter-arrival times and that the model performs better than simpler, commonly used distributions. In addition, the presented statistical model enables us to compare the adjustment processes in different economies and to forecast the occurrence of future recessions.

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Section: Plos Onementioning

confidence: 61%

Assessing the time intervals between economic recessions

2020

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“…However, young people are doing the opposite, as the rate of active job change has not declined ( Mycos Research Institute, 2022 ). This behavioral trend reflects a lack of career identity ( Bondt and Vermeulen, 2020 ; Cerra et al, 2023 ). The high employee turnover rate is a marked cost burden on enterprises and has become one of the bottlenecks impeding their development.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The influence of internship satisfaction and the psychological contract on the career identity behavior of fresh graduates

Feng,

Zhang,

Zeng

et al. 2023

Front. Psychol.

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IntroductionFrequent resignation of young workers brings huge costs to the organizational management of enterprises. The frequent turnover behavior is a sign of low career identity, and exploring the paths that influence career identity behaviors is necessary. Previous studies have found that internship satisfaction and the psychological contract can influence career identity behavior. However, the dimensions of the psychological contract are unclear, and it is uncertain whether internship satisfaction can influence career identity behavior through the different dimensions of the psychological contract. This study attempts to expand the concept of psychological contract and construct a multiple mediation model. It aims to analyze the mediating role of different dimensions of the psychological contract between internship satisfaction and career identity behavior.MethodsA sample survey was conducted on Chinese fresh graduates by way of the questionnaire survey, and a total of 576 valid questionnaires were collected. Amos 26.0 was used to analyze the data and verify the multiple mediation model.ResultsThe results showed that psychological contract can be divided into three dimensions: transactional contract, relational contract, and developmental contract. Internship satisfaction can positively influence career identity behavior via the three dimensions of psychological contract, and there are differences in mediating effects among the dimensions. The mediating effect of developmental contract is the highest, relational contract is the second, and transactional contract is the lowest.DiscussionThis article expands the dimensions of psychological contract, emphasizes the importance of developmental contract, contributes to the literature on organizational psychology, and provides scales and empirical evidence for future research. The analysis points out that fresh graduates with long-term development opportunities often show higher career identity behavior. This provides valuable insights for enhancing career identity behavior, improving career sustainability, and assisting organizations in managing human resource mobility.

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“…Classical business cycles are defined as alternating phases of expansion of aggregate economic activity and phases of recessions (Burns and Mitchell, 1946). While classical business cycles have been thoroughly studied (see de Bondt and Vermeulen, 2018;Castro, 2010Castro, , 2013; and references therein), much less is known about growth rate or acceleration cycles. acceleration cycles, defined as acceleration and deceleration of the growth rate, have been very scarcely explored.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The duration of acceleration cycle downturns: duration dependence, international dynamics and synchronisation

Koutsoumanis

Castro

2022

Empir Econ

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This paper analyses the factors that affect the duration of economic downturns using data for growth (acceleration) cycles for 13 industrialised countries over the period 1950–2018. Our findings show that downturn periods die of old age. We also find that when trading partners are in a downturn, the duration of a country’s downturn is likely to be shorter, a likely outcome of common stabilisation mechanisms or terms of trade changes. Additionally, more open economies are found to experience shorter downturn periods and European Union countries show a higher level of synchronisation than the others. Lastly, trade linkages are found to intensify acceleration cycle synchronisation.

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Business cycle duration dependence and foreign recessions

Abstract: I think it's a myth that expansions die of old age…the fact that this has been quite a long expansion doesn't lead me to believe that…its days are numbered.

Cited by 8 publications

References 23 publications

Assessing the time intervals between economic recessions

Assessing the time intervals between economic recessions

The influence of internship satisfaction and the psychological contract on the career identity behavior of fresh graduates

The duration of acceleration cycle downturns: duration dependence, international dynamics and synchronisation

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