Business cycle and mortality in Spain

Abstract

In the last couple of decades, there has been a lot of interest on the impact of macroeconomic fluctuations on health and mortality rates. Many studies, for different countries, find that mortality is procyclical. However, studies examining the effects of more recent recessions are less conclusive, finding mortality to be less procyclical, or even countercyclical. In this paper, using data of Spanish provinces from 1999 to 2016, we investigate how this relationship works in the context of a country that is subject to extreme business cycle fluctuations. Furthermore, we analyze the impact of unemployment for different mortality causes and we explore differences by sex, age group and level of education. In general terms, we find mortality to be procyclical so that when the economy is in a recession, mortality falls. When exploring mortality causes, we show that deaths from cardiovascular disease, cancer, senility, transport accidents and homicides are procyclical. By sex, we find procyclicality for both men and women. By age, mortality is procyclical for all age groups; however, the causes of death that result in this procyclical behavior are specific to each age group. By educational level, suicide appears as a countercyclical cause for individuals with intermediate levels of education.

Health status and the Great Recession. Evidence from electronic health records

“…While our findings on CVDs contrast studies on general business cycle fluctuations and health (Cervini‐Plá & Vall‐Castelló, 2021, Ruhm, 2000, 2005), they are fully in line with recent findings by Birgisdóttir et al. (2020) on CVDs in Iceland.…”

Business Cycle and Public Health: The Moderating Role of Health Education and Digital Economy

“…There is wide interest among academics and policymakers in understanding the relationship between business cycle and public health, with a particular focus on population mortality ( 22 ). However, the impact of business cycle on mortality is somewhat controversial in previous empirical investigations ( 23 ).…”

“…However, the impact of business cycle on mortality is somewhat controversial in previous empirical investigations ( 23 ). Some literature addressed pro-cyclical effects of business cycle on mortality in Greece, Finland, Iceland ( 24 ), Spain ( 22 ), Canada ( 25 ), England and Wales ( 26 , 27 ), the United States ( 28 ), Japan ( 29 ), and ASEAN countries ( 30 ), thus showing that economic recession promotes public health and decreases mortality. By contrast, some other studies asserted a procyclical pattern of mortality, indicating that economic recession was not good for public health ( 31 , 32 ).…”

The Effect of the Great Recession on Italian Life Expectancy

“…This picture, however, is further complicated by the fact that since 2008 many European countries have experienced a marked reduction in mortality (Ballester et al, 2019 ; Baumbach & Gulis, 2014 ; Cervini-Plá & Vall-Castelló, 2021 ; Regidor et al, 2016 ; Tapia Granados & Ionides, 2017 ; Toffolutti & Suhrcke, 2014 ). This appears, perhaps surprisingly, to be especially true for those countries in which the rise in unemployment rate was particularly intense: Spain, Ireland, Slovenia, and the Baltic States (Salinari & Benassi, 2022 ).…”