Burden of Stroke in Europe

Abstract

<jats:sec> <jats:title>Background and purpose:</jats:title> <jats:p>Prediction of stroke impact provides essential information for healthcare planning and priority setting. We aim to estimate 30-year projections of stroke epidemiology in the European Union using multiple modeling approaches.</jats:p> </jats:sec> <jats:sec> <jats:title>Methods:</jats:title> <jats:p>Data on stroke incidence, prevalence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years in the European Union between 1990 and 2017 were obtained from the global burden of disease study. Their trends over time were modeled using 3 modeling strategies: linear, Poisson, and exponential regressions―adjusted for the gross domestic product per capita, which reflects the impact of economic development on health status. We used the Akaike information criterion for model selection. The 30-year projections up to 2047 were estimated using the best fitting models, with inputs on population projections from the United Nations and gross domestic product per capita prospects from the World Bank. The technique was applied separately by age-sex-country groups for each stroke measure.</jats:p> </jats:sec> <jats:sec> <jats:title>Results:</jats:title> <jats:p>In 2017, there were 1.12 million incident strokes in the European Union, 9.53 million stroke survivors, 0.46 million deaths, and 7.06 million disability-adjusted life years lost because of stroke. By 2047, we estimated an additional 40 000 incident strokes (+3%) and 2.58 million prevalent cases (+27%). Conversely, 80 000 fewer deaths (–17%) and 2.31 million fewer disability-adjusted life years lost (–33%) are projected. The largest increase in the age-adjusted incidence and prevalence rates are expected in Lithuania (average annual percentage change, 0.48% and 0.7% respectively), and the greatest reductions in Portugal (–1.57% and –1.3%). Average annual percentage change in mortality rates will range from −2.86% (Estonia) to −0.08% (Lithuania), and disability-adjusted life years’ from −2.77% (Estonia) to −0.23% (Romania).</jats:p> </jats:sec> <jats:sec> <jats:title>Conclusions:</jats:title> <jats:p>The number of people living with stroke is estimated to increase by 27% between 2017 and 2047 in the European Union, mainly because of population ageing and improved survival rates. Variations are expected to persist between countries showing opportunities for improvements in prevention and case management particularly in Eastern Europe.</jats:p> </jats:sec>

How many people will need palliative care in Scotland by 2040? A mixed-method study of projected palliative care need and recommendations for service delivery

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“…Despite recent advances in the acute-phase management of stroke survivors, disability rates remain high [ 2 ]. Thereby, with an estimated 27% increase in the number of people surviving a stroke in Europe, the absolute burden of stroke is expected to continue to increase over the next 30 years [ 3 ]. Healthy behaviors and preventive practices might help manage chronic health conditions successfully [ 4 ].…”

Inside the Thrombus: Association of Hemostatic Parameters With Outcomes in Large Vessel Stroke Patients

“…Stroke severely hampers the normal daily activities of survivors affecting health and social-care resources ( 2 ). Moreover, in 2047, the number of stroke events is expected to increase in almost 40,000 incident strokes and 2.58 million prevalent cases in Europe, in part as a consequence of the aging of the population ( 3 ).…”