Building technology foresight: using scenarios to embrace innovation

Abstract

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to describe the application of scenario planning methods to: identifying disruptive innovations at an early stage, mapping out potential development paths for such innovations, and building appropriate organizational capabilities.Design/methodology/approachA combination of scenario planning with technology road‐mapping, expert analysis and creative group processes. The techniques described can be integrated with traditional tools of strategic technology planning. The paper presents a short illustrative case study and examples from practice.FindingsScenario techniques can be successfully applied to analysing disruptive innovation.Practical implicationsScenario techniques help guide managers to more effective decision making by preparing for a wide range of uncertainty and by counteracting typical biases of over‐optimism and decision “framing”. The techniques presented can be used in executive development and in strategic planning for innovative and high‐tech industries.Originality/valueThis paper presents a novel way to combine scenario methods with technology road‐mapping and creative group analysis. It also provides an overview of the literature and research related to scenario planning for disruptive innovation.

Perceived Environmental Uncertainty in scenario planning

“…A number of authors (such as O'Brien et al [39]; Drew [40]) suggest the examination of both levels of PEU simultaneously. Drew [40] uses them simultaneously because his approach is based on an integration of the Schwartz [17], Van der Heijden [7] and Schoemaker [16] approaches.…”

“…It has to be noted that Schwartz is an influential author for the scenario planning literature and his methodology has been adopted in a great number of studies [38]. A number of authors (such as O'Brien et al [39]; Drew [40]) suggest the examination of both levels of PEU simultaneously. Drew [40] uses them simultaneously because his approach is based on an integration of the Schwartz [17], Van der Heijden [7] and Schoemaker [16] approaches.…”

Scenario thinking: A practice-based approach for the identification of opportunities for innovation

“…Beyond being historically employed as a mere planning tool, a growing number of organisations support and conduct scenario planning exercises, issuing calls on managers to integrate these into their organisational processes [9,10]; scenario planning having been heralded as leading to other desirable organisational outcomes such as adaptive learning [11], improved decision making [12], organisational ambidexterity [13], creativity [14] and innovation [15,16].…”

Technology Mapping – Proposal of a Method of Technology Analysis in Foresight Studies

“…The first function he enumerates is foresight which is indis pensable to set new development paths for technology and innovation while taking into account the uncertainty. The other functions, although the author does not relate them directly to foresight, seem to refer to it as well (Drew 2006). A. Magruk also sees a link between technology management and foresight research through the applied methods.…”