Building Statistical Proxy Models for CO2 Geologic Sequestration

Schuetter, Jared; Mishra, Kakuli; Ganesh, Priya Ravi; Mooney, Doug

doi:10.1016/j.egypro.2014.11.399

Cited by 24 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…Analytical methods are computationally cheaper, but are typically limited to single phase fluid flow under specific geomechanics scenarios such as uniaxial compression condition, homogeneity of the system, or plane strain/stress condition . The alternative method, presented in this work, is to only observe the response at a subset of independent values, and then fit a statistical response surface model to those points . This work studies the poroelastic responses of a closed reservoir system in the Michigan basin and develops a response surface model predicting stress changes and surface uplift during CO 2 storage.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…7,40 The alternative method, presented in this work, is to only observe the response at a subset of independent values, and then fit a statistical response surface model to those points. [41][42][43] This work studies the poroelastic responses of a closed reservoir system in the Michigan basin and develops a response surface model predicting stress changes and surface uplift during CO 2 storage. A Niagaran carbonate reef system is used for modeling the base case as well as an additional 146 scenarios to develop the response surface.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Statistical based hydromechanical models to estimate poroelastic effects of CO₂ injection into a closed reservoir

Raziperchikolaee

Mishra

2020

Greenhouse Gases

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In this study, a statistical‐based methodology is used to evaluate the poroelastic effects of injection during CO2 geologic sequestration in a closed reservoir. We constructed a series of hydromechanical models to evaluate the poroelastic effect of injection by quantifying total stress changes inside the reservoir, reservoir displacement, and surface uplift. The models are representative of closed carbonate reef reservoirs of the Michigan basin. A combination of experimental design for seven independent parameters (depth, caprock and reservoir Young's modulus, caprock and reservoir Poisson's ratio, pressure, and Biot's coefficient) and response surface modeling was used to develop statistical‐based reduced‐order models. We performed 147 numerical simulations to develop simplified models. The poroelastic model responses were captured using a standard quadratic model with full interaction terms, as well as a reduced model with only statistically significant coefficients. The interpretation of reduced‐order models, using R2 loss method, shows that while surface uplift depends mainly on the depth of the reservoir, stress increase depends mainly on Biot's coefficient. The developed statistical‐based models provide a quick tool to evaluate the poroelastic effect of injection into the closed carbonate reservoirs of the Michigan basin. Reduced‐order models were then combined with a Monte Carlo simulation to perform poroelastic uncertainty analyses and achieve a better understanding of the poroelastic performance of CO2 storage in the closed carbonate system of the Michigan basin. © 2020 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Statistical based hydromechanical models to estimate poroelastic effects of CO₂ injection into a closed reservoir

Raziperchikolaee

Mishra

2020

Greenhouse Gases

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“…This leads to the identification of key dimensionless groups affecting system performance, and the development of response surface fits for plume migration in terms of these dimensionless variables. This two‐step hybrid approach, where the model parameters are selected from full‐physics simulation‐based insights, is thus different from a conventional experimental design/response surface approach, where a purely statistical model is developed between model inputs and the output of interest. Detailed compositional simulations of CO 2 injection into a saline aquifer system are carried out using CMG‐GEM® for a broad range of reservoir and caprock properties.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simplified physics model of CO₂ plume extent in stratified aquifer‐caprock systems

Ganesh

Mishra

2015

Greenhouse Gases

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The extent of plume migration as injected CO2 displaces the native reservoir fluids is a crucial performance metric to ensure safe and effective geologic sequestration. In this paper, we develop and validate a simplified physics model for the outer extent of CO2‐brine interface in a stratified aquifer‐caprock system. This involves quantifying the total storage efficiency, which is defined as the product of the volumetric sweep and displacement efficiencies, based on simulations covering an extensive parameter space of different reservoir and caprock properties. We model CO2 injection into a 2‐D radially symmetric brine‐filled reservoir with vertical permeability variations that is in hydraulic communication with a caprock. Based on insights from a suite of detailed numerical simulations of our system, the most important terms in the simplified model for total storage efficiency involve the relative permeability model followed by integrated measures of reservoir heterogeneity. A relationship is established for the plume extent at the end of injection from the amount of CO2 injected and the storativity (porosity‐thickness product) of the reservoir. © 2015 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

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“…Experimental design and response models are popular and used widely (Fisher and Genetiker 1960;Mishra et al 2015). Schuetter et al (2014) compare the use of Box-Behnken sampling and quadratic polynomial regression with Latin Hypercube sampling, multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS), and additivity variance stabilization (AVAS) techniques for geological CO 2 sequestration. They conclude that the model developed using Box-Behnken and quadratic polynomials performs the best.…”

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confidence: 99%

“…They conclude that the model developed using Box-Behnken and quadratic polynomials performs the best. Following Schuetter et al (2014), this work uses Box-Behnken experimental design. Experimental design and response surfaces have also been used in the context of geothermal reservoir engineering (Hoang et al 2005;Quinao and Zarrouk 2014).…”

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confidence: 99%

Response surface method for assessing energy production from geopressured geothermal reservoirs

Ansari

Hughes

2016

Geotherm Energy

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Building Statistical Proxy Models for CO2 Geologic Sequestration

Cited by 24 publications

References 12 publications

Statistical based hydromechanical models to estimate poroelastic effects of CO₂ injection into a closed reservoir

Statistical based hydromechanical models to estimate poroelastic effects of CO₂ injection into a closed reservoir

Simplified physics model of CO₂ plume extent in stratified aquifer‐caprock systems

Response surface method for assessing energy production from geopressured geothermal reservoirs

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Building Statistical Proxy Models for CO2 Geologic Sequestration

Cited by 24 publications

References 12 publications

Statistical based hydromechanical models to estimate poroelastic effects of CO2 injection into a closed reservoir

Statistical based hydromechanical models to estimate poroelastic effects of CO2 injection into a closed reservoir

Simplified physics model of CO2 plume extent in stratified aquifer‐caprock systems

Response surface method for assessing energy production from geopressured geothermal reservoirs

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Product

Resources

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Statistical based hydromechanical models to estimate poroelastic effects of CO₂ injection into a closed reservoir

Statistical based hydromechanical models to estimate poroelastic effects of CO₂ injection into a closed reservoir

Simplified physics model of CO₂ plume extent in stratified aquifer‐caprock systems