Building scenarios for ecosystem services tools: Developing a methodology for efficient engagement with expert stakeholders

Berg, Chelsea; Rogers, Shannon H.; Mineau, Madeleine M.

doi:10.1016/j.futures.2015.10.014

Cited by 42 publications

(27 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…Moreover, biological invasions have arisen from a complex interplay of environmental, socio-economic and societal changes that are difficult to project using classical modeling techniques, like static habitat suitability models, population dynamic models or cellular automata (see Buchadas et al, 2017;Capinha et al, 2018;Lenzner et al, 2019). To overcome such multi-disciplinary challenges, combining classical forecasting techniques with expert-based assessments has proven to be a promising approach (e.g., through qualitative surveys; Berg et al, 2016;Symstad et al, 2017;Reside et al, 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

What Will the Future Bring for Biological Invasions on Islands? An Expert-Based Assessment

et al. 2020

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

What Will the Future Bring for Biological Invasions on Islands? An Expert-Based Assessment

et al. 2020

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“…The scenario building is a powerful tool that allows for visualization and quantification of potential impacts that human uses could have on the ecosystems [ 63 , 64 ], as well as for determination of the trade-offs and synergies that are produced within the system [ 65 ]. In this case, the prospective method allowed to systematically create future scenarios for the SA with better spatial and temporal resolution.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of ecosystem services of an urbanized tropical estuary with a focus on habitats and scenarios

et al. 2018

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Tropical estuaries are one of the most valuable ecosystems on the planet because of the number of ecosystem services they provide. The increasing anthropogenic pressure to which these estuaries are subject has caused a reduction in their natural capital stock. Therefore, the application of a pragmatic and rational ecosystem-based management approach to sustainably manage the multiple ecosystem services provided by this ecosystem is necessary. The aim of our study is to present an approach that combines prospective scenarios with habitat-based perspective to assess the supply capacity of ecosystem services, plus determine the impact of protected areas in an urbanized tropical estuary. The current situation and two scenarios were generated to evaluate the capacity of habitats to supply ecosystem services. This type of assessment will allow the decision makers to visualize the effect of their choices or the occurrence of events which might produce significant changes in the estuary. Thus, over time, measures can be taken to sustain the supply of ecosystem services. We determined that the establishment of protected areas have a positive impact; however, the effect is not the same for all of them. Consequently, indicating that actions such as community participation, research, education, management planning and infrastructure development must accompany the development of a protected area.

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“…As part of the scenario generation, we queried local expert stakeholders representing public, private, and non-profit sectors, with 16 out of 18 interested stakeholders completing the questionnaire that helped us determine drivers and expected magnitude of land cover change over a 10 year period. As further described with full questionnaire used in Berg et al (2015), we created scenarios of conservation and development trajectories using the InVEST Scenario Generator Tool version 3.1.0. to use as input into both models to produce both the value of N retained in both scenarios and the amount of N exported ( Fig. 3).…”

Section: Scenario Generationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Future scenario generation is commonly used in the ecosystem services field (Alcamo, 2008;Cook et al, 2014). As described in detail in a previous publication, we queried a variety of expert stakeholders representing various sectors, build future land cover scenarios, and simulated the impacts of both conservation efforts and increased development on N loads from each tributary (Berg et al, 2015). Again, the ultimate goal of this study was to investigate the amount of nitrogen removed and costs avoided of non-point source N management compared to point source management using two stakeholder-driven future land cover scenarios.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reprint:Examining the ecosystem service of nutrient removal in a coastal watershed

2016

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a b s t r a c tGlobally, managers are trying to prevent or halt the eutrophication of valuable estuaries and bays by reducing nutrient inputs, but justifying the cost of conservation or processing facility upgrades often proves challenging. We focus on a coastal watershed in Maine and New Hampshire struggling with the financial burdens of nitrogen pollution mandates due to the eutrophication of the Great Bay estuary. After creating two future watershed land cover scenarios comparing plausible extremes, we ran them through two models, the Natural Capital Project's InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs) and a detailed hydrologic and biogeochemical river network model FrAMES (Framework for Aquatic Modeling of the Earth System). Through this work, we both evaluated and valued the ecosystem service of nitrogen retention. We find that both models provide numerical arguments for conservation efforts, and decision makers would benefit from using either an ecosystem services model or a biogeochemical model when dealing with complex issues like nutrient overenrichment. According to both our modeling results, modest watershed conservation efforts as defined by our expert stakeholders, ie: protecting wetlands and forests, could reduce the amount of total nitrogen entering the Great Bay estuary in the range of 3-28 metric tons per year.

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Building scenarios for ecosystem services tools: Developing a methodology for efficient engagement with expert stakeholders

Cited by 42 publications

References 11 publications

What Will the Future Bring for Biological Invasions on Islands? An Expert-Based Assessment

What Will the Future Bring for Biological Invasions on Islands? An Expert-Based Assessment

Assessment of ecosystem services of an urbanized tropical estuary with a focus on habitats and scenarios

Reprint:Examining the ecosystem service of nutrient removal in a coastal watershed

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