Building Robust Models to Forecast the Induced Seismicity Related to Geothermal Reservoir Enhancement

Mena, Banu; Wiemer, Stefan; Bachmann, C. E.

doi:10.1785/0120120102

Cited by 69 publications

(78 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…Similar approaches have been used to describe injection-induced seismicity (e.g. Shapiro et al, 2010Shapiro et al, , 2013Mena et al, 2013). In such activity rate models the event nucleation rate is given by a function, λ p , of compaction which is therefore spatially and temporally varying resulting in an inhomogeneous Poisson process defined as follows:…”

Section: Activity Rate Model Dependent On Reservoir Shear Strainsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Development of statistical geomechanical models for forecasting seismicity induced by gas production from the Groningen field

Bourne

Oates

2017

Netherlands Journal of Geosciences

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This paper reviews the evolution of a sequence of seismological models developed and implemented as part of a workflow for Probabilistic SeismicHazard and Risk Assessment of the seismicity induced by gas production from the Groningen gas field. These are semi-empirical statistical geomechanical models derived from observations of production-induced seismicity, reservoir compaction and structure of the field itself. Initial versions of the seismological model were based on a characterisation of the seismicity in terms of its moment budget. Subsequent versions of the model were formulated in terms of seismic event rates, this change being driven in part by the reduction in variability of the model forecasts in this domain.Our approach makes use of the Epidemic Type After Shock model (ETAS) to characterise spatial and temporal clustering of earthquakes and has been extended to also incorporate the concentration of moment release on pre-existing faults and other reservoir topographic structures.

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Section: Activity Rate Model Dependent On Reservoir Shear Strainsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Development of statistical geomechanical models for forecasting seismicity induced by gas production from the Groningen field

Bourne

Oates

2017

Netherlands Journal of Geosciences

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“…This places an onus on the operators of the inducing activities to quantify and limit the potential impact of earthquakes, either through the use of "traffic light" systems that aim to control the resulting hazard (Bommer et al, 2006;Häring et al, 2008;Bachmann et al, 2011;Majer et al, 2012;Zoback, 2012;Mena et al, 2013;Douglas and Aochi, 2014;Mignan et al, 2015) or through a more holistic risk mitigation strategy . In either case, the essential elements in quantifying the potential impact of such earthquakes on exposed population and building stock are ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) or ground-motion models.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Developing an Application‐Specific Ground‐Motion Model for Induced Seismicity

Bommer¹,

Dost²,

Edwards³

et al. 2015

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America

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A key element of quantifying both the hazard and risk due to induced earthquakes is a suite of appropriate ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) that encompass the possible shaking levels due to such events. Induced earthquakes are likely to be of smaller magnitude and shallower focal depth than the tectonic earthquakes for which most GMPEs are derived. Furthermore, whereas GMPEs for moderate-to-large magnitude earthquakes are usually derived to be transportable to different locations and applications, taking advantage of the limited regional dependence observed for such events, the characteristics of induced earthquakes warrant the development of application-specific models. A preliminary ground-motion model for induced seismicity in the Groningen gas field in The Netherlands is presented as an illustration of a possible approach to the development of these equations. The GMPE is calibrated to local recordings of small-magnitude events and captures the epistemic uncertainty in the extrapolation to larger magnitude considered in the assessment of the resulting hazard and risk.

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“…The primary goal of these efforts is to develop a dynamic, probabilistic and data-driven traffic light system that can provide real-time hazard estimates during injections (Karvounis et al, 2014;Király-Proag et al, 2016), as opposed to the traditional, static traffic light system (Bommer et al, 2006). Bachmann et al (2011) and Mena et al (2013) developed several statistical models and tested them in a pseudo-prospective manner using the Basel seismicity dataset. More complex models including physical considerations and stochastic processes (so-called hybrid models) were developed to include information on the reservoir behavior and from the spatiotemporal evolution of seismicity (Goertz-Allmann and Wiemer, 2013;Kiràly et al, 2018).…”

Section: Induced Seismicitymentioning

confidence: 99%

The seismo-hydromechanical behavior during deep geothermal reservoir stimulations: open questions tackled in a decameter-scale in situ stimulation experiment

et al. 2018

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Abstract. In this contribution, we present a review of scientific research results that address seismo-hydromechanically coupled processes relevant for the development of a sustainable heat exchanger in low-permeability crystalline rock and introduce the design of the In situ Stimulation and Circulation (ISC) experiment at the Grimsel Test Site dedicated to studying such processes under controlled conditions. The review shows that research on reservoir stimulation for deep geothermal energy exploitation has been largely based on laboratory observations, large-scale projects and numerical models. Observations of full-scale reservoir stimulations have yielded important results. However, the limited access to the reservoir and limitations in the control on the experimental conditions during deep reservoir stimulations is insufficient to resolve the details of the hydromechanical processes that would enhance process understanding in a way that aids future stimulation design. Small-scale laboratory experiments provide fundamental insights into various processes relevant for enhanced geothermal energy, but suffer from (1) difficulties and uncertainties in upscaling the results to the field scale and (2) relatively homogeneous material and stress conditions that lead to an oversimplistic fracture flow and/or hydraulic fracture propagation behavior that is not representative of a heterogeneous reservoir. Thus, there is a need for intermediate-scale hydraulic stimulation experiments with high experimental control that bridge the various scales and for which access to the target rock mass with a comprehensive monitoring system is possible. The ISC experiment is designed to address open research questions in a naturally fractured and faulted crystalline rock mass at the Grimsel Test Site (Switzerland). Two hydraulic injection phases were executed to enhance the permeability of the rock mass. During the injection phases the rock mass deformation across fractures and within intact rock, the pore pressure distribution and propagation, and the microseismic response were monitored at a high spatial and temporal resolution.

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Building Robust Models to Forecast the Induced Seismicity Related to Geothermal Reservoir Enhancement

Cited by 69 publications

References 41 publications

Development of statistical geomechanical models for forecasting seismicity induced by gas production from the Groningen field

Development of statistical geomechanical models for forecasting seismicity induced by gas production from the Groningen field

Developing an Application‐Specific Ground‐Motion Model for Induced Seismicity

The seismo-hydromechanical behavior during deep geothermal reservoir stimulations: open questions tackled in a decameter-scale in situ stimulation experiment

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