Building resource constraints and feasibility considerations in mathematical models for infectious disease: A systematic literature review

Bozzani, Fiammetta; Vassall, Anna; Gomez, Gabriela B.

doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2021.100450

Cited by 6 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 49 publications

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“…In this way, models enable analysts to explore the efficiency of investments in infection control in specific settings and can assist with priority setting and resource allocation at the country level. Most recently, studies have begun exploring possibilities for parameterizing models with data on the health system constraints affecting real-world intervention implementation ( Bozzani et al. , 2021 ; Vassall et al.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Using system dynamics modelling to estimate the costs of relaxing health system constraints: a case study of tuberculosis prevention and control interventions in South Africa

Bozzani

Diaconu

Gomez

et al. 2021

Health Policy and Planning

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Health system constraints are increasingly recognised as an important addition to model-based analyses of disease control interventions, as they affect achievable impact and scale. Enabling activities implemented alongside interventions to relax constraints and reach the intended coverage may incur additional costs, which should be considered in priority setting decisions. We explore the use of group model building, a participatory system dynamics modelling technique, for eliciting information from key stakeholders on the constraints that apply to tuberculosis infection prevention and control processes within primary healthcare clinics in South Africa. This information was used to design feasible interventions, including the necessary enablers to relax existing constraints. Intervention and enabler costs were then calculated at two clinics in KwaZulu-Natal using input prices and quantities from the published literature and local suppliers. Among the proposed interventions, the most inexpensive were retrofitting buildings to improve ventilation (US$ 1,644 per year), followed by maximising the use of community sites for medication collection among stable patients on antiretroviral therapy (US$ 3,753) and introducing appointments systems to reduce crowding (US$ 9,302). Enablers identified included enhanced staff training, supervision and patient engagement activities to support behaviour change and local ownership. Several of the enablers identified by the stakeholders, such as obtaining building permissions or improving information flows between levels of the health systems, were not amenable to costing. Despite this limitation, an approach to costing rooted in system dynamics modelling can be successfully applied in economic evaluations to more accurately estimate the ‘real world’ opportunity cost of intervention options. Further empirical research applying this approach to different intervention types (e.g. new preventive technologies or diagnostics) may identify interventions that are not cost-effective in specific contexts based on the size of the required investment in enablers.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Using system dynamics modelling to estimate the costs of relaxing health system constraints: a case study of tuberculosis prevention and control interventions in South Africa

Bozzani

Diaconu

Gomez

et al. 2021

Health Policy and Planning

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“…Numerous studies have utilized agent-based models to investigate the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions including self-isolation, quarantine, and social distancing on the spread of COVID-19 6 , 24 – 28 . Agent-based models have been more commonly utilized to investigate scenarios where the effectiveness of physical, non-pharmaceutical interventions within a localized setting, such as within a hospital, were of interest 29 . In an analysis of 698 research articles on agent-based modeling of infectious disease transmission, from 2006 to 2015, Willem et al find that 261 studies simulated interventions, out of which 105 studies investigated non-pharmaceutical interventions, in particular 30 .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating efficacy of indoor non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 outbreaks with a coupled spatial-SIR agent-based simulation framework

Gunaratne

Jara

Hemberg

et al. 2022

Sci Rep

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Contagious respiratory diseases, such as COVID-19, depend on sufficiently prolonged exposures for the successful transmission of the underlying pathogen. It is important that organizations evaluate the efficacy of non-pharmaceutical interventions aimed at mitigating viral transmission among their personnel. We have developed a operational risk assessment simulation framework that couples a spatial agent-based model of movement with an agent-based SIR model to assess the relative risks of different intervention strategies. By applying our model on MIT’s Stata center, we assess the impacts of three possible dimensions of intervention: one-way vs unrestricted movement, population size allowed onsite, and frequency of leaving designated work location for breaks. We find that there is no significant impact made by one-way movement restrictions over unrestricted movement. Instead, we find that reducing the frequency at which individuals leave their workstations combined with lowering the number of individuals admitted below the current recommendations lowers the likelihood of highly connected individuals within the contact networks that emerge, which in turn lowers the overall risk of infection. We discover three classes of possible interventions based on their epidemiological effects. By assuming a direct relationship between data on secondary attack rates and transmissibility in the agent-based SIR model, we compare relative infection risk of four respiratory illnesses, MERS, SARS, COVID-19, and Measles, within the simulated area, and recommend appropriate intervention guidelines.

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Predicting the outbreak of epidemics using a network-based approach

Das

Bose

Sarkar

2023

European Journal of Operational Research

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Building resource constraints and feasibility considerations in mathematical models for infectious disease: A systematic literature review

Cited by 6 publications

References 49 publications

Using system dynamics modelling to estimate the costs of relaxing health system constraints: a case study of tuberculosis prevention and control interventions in South Africa

Using system dynamics modelling to estimate the costs of relaxing health system constraints: a case study of tuberculosis prevention and control interventions in South Africa

Evaluating efficacy of indoor non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 outbreaks with a coupled spatial-SIR agent-based simulation framework

Predicting the outbreak of epidemics using a network-based approach

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