Building future nuclear power fleets: The available uranium resources constraint

Gabriel, Sophie; Baschwitz, Anne; Mathonnière, Gilles; Fizaine, Florian; Eleouet, Tommy

doi:10.1016/j.resourpol.2013.06.008

Cited by 39 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 14 publications

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“…The availability of natural uranium will have a direct impact on the global capability to build new nuclear reactors in the coming decades as it is forecasted that Light Water Reactors (LWRs) will remain the main nuclear technology for most of the 21st century [1,2]. The cost associated with this availability is also important.…”

Section: Long-term Cumulative Supply Curves (Ltcs)mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The two variables are grade (mean grade of a deposit, denoted g) and tonnage (ore tonnage of a deposit, denoted t); -the scope of the model is split to several regional crustal abundance estimations. These regions are called geological environments 2 . A geological environment is defined by its own geographical boundaries, resource dispersion (average grade and size of ore bodies and their variance), and cost function; -a statistical approach is adopted.…”

Section: A Statistical Approach Based On Geological Environmentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Statistical model of global uranium resources and long-term availability

Monnet

Gabriel

Percebois

2016

EPJ Nuclear Sci. Technol.

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Abstract. Most recent studies on the long-term supply of uranium make simplistic assumptions on the available resources and their production costs. Some consider the whole uranium quantities in the Earth's crust and then estimate the production costs based on the ore grade only, disregarding the size of ore bodies and the mining techniques. Other studies consider the resources reported by countries for a given cost category, disregarding undiscovered or unreported quantities. In both cases, the resource estimations are sorted following a cost merit order. In this paper, we describe a methodology based on "geological environments". It provides a more detailed resource estimation and it is more flexible regarding cost modelling. The global uranium resource estimation introduced in this paper results from the sum of independent resource estimations from different geological environments. A geological environment is defined by its own geographical boundaries, resource dispersion (average grade and size of ore bodies and their variance), and cost function. With this definition, uranium resources are considered within ore bodies. The deposit breakdown of resources is modelled using a bivariate statistical approach where size and grade are the two random variables. This makes resource estimates possible for individual projects. Adding up all geological environments provides a repartition of all Earth's crust resources in which ore bodies are sorted by size and grade. This subset-based estimation is convenient to model specific cost structures.

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Section: Long-term Cumulative Supply Curves (Ltcs)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: A Statistical Approach Based On Geological Environmentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Statistical model of global uranium resources and long-term availability

Monnet

Gabriel

Percebois

2016

EPJ Nuclear Sci. Technol.

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“…In 2011, nuclear-fission energy consumed 68,000 tonnes of mined uranium to generate 2558 TWh [51], and the global known recoverable uranium resource is estimated at 5,327,200 t as of 2011 at current market prices [51]. Although a major expansion of global uranium supply is plausible from lower-quality ores and marine sources (about 4,290,000,000 t) [52] should fuel prices rise, we argue that Generation IV reactor technologies coupled with full fuel recycling (to extract over 100 times the energy from the actinides compared to earlier-generation technology) is a more sustainable and feasible approach to achieving rapid and sustainable nuclear expansion, especially because nuclear waste becomes a zero-carbon fuel rather than a management problem [3]. Second, after the Fukushima-Daiichi incidents, safety matters associated with nuclear reactors again rose to prominence as a major concern of the general public.…”

Section: Limitations and Solutionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global zero-carbon energy pathways using viable mixes of nuclear and renewables

2015

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“…2 Study conditions 2.1 Prospective scenarios [2] To carry out this prospective study, we needed to define assumptions with respect to the evolving energy demand and the deployable nuclear technologies available within the century. These assumptions are detailed below.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Deployable nuclear fleet based on available quantities of uranium and reactor types – the case of fast reactors started up with enriched uranium

Baschwitz

Mathonnière

Gabriel

et al. 2016

EPJ Nuclear Sci. Technol.

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Abstract. International organizations regularly produce global energy demand scenarios. To account for the increasing population and GDP trends, as well as to encompass evolving energy uses while satisfying constraints on greenhouse gas emissions, long-term installed nuclear power capacity scenarios tend to be more ambitious, even after the Fukushima accident. Thus, the amounts of uranium or plutonium needed to deploy such capacities could be limiting factors. This study first considers light-water reactors (LWR, GEN III) using enriched uranium, like most of the current reactor technologies. It then examines the contribution of future fast reactors (FR, GEN IV) operating with an initial fissile load and then using depleted uranium and recycling their own plutonium. However, as plutonium is only available in limited quantity since it is only produced in nuclear reactors, the possibility of starting up these Generation IV reactors with a fissile load of enriched uranium is also explored. In one of our previous studies, the uranium consumption of a third-generation reactor like an EPR TM was compared with that of a fast reactor started up with enriched uranium (U5-FR). For a reactor lifespan of 60 years, the U5-FR consumes three times less uranium than the EPR and represents a 60% reduction in terms of separative work units (SWU), though its requirements are concentrated over the first few years of operation. The purpose of this study is to investigate the relevance of U5-FRs in a nuclear fleet deployment configuration. Considering several power demand scenarios and assuming different finite quantities of available natural uranium, this paper examines what types of reactors must be deployed to meet the demand. The deployment of light-water reactors only is not sustainable in the long run. Generation IV reactors are therefore essential. Yet when started up with plutonium, the number of reactors that can be deployed is also limited. In a fleet deployment configuration, U5-FRs appear to provide the best solution for using uranium, even if the economic impact of this consumption during the first years of operation is significant.

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Building future nuclear power fleets: The available uranium resources constraint

Cited by 39 publications

References 14 publications

Statistical model of global uranium resources and long-term availability

Statistical model of global uranium resources and long-term availability

Global zero-carbon energy pathways using viable mixes of nuclear and renewables

Deployable nuclear fleet based on available quantities of uranium and reactor types – the case of fast reactors started up with enriched uranium

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