Budget accuracy in Czech municipalities and the determinants of tax revenue forecasting errors

Sedmihradská, Lucie; Čabla, Adam

doi:10.7327/cerei.2013.12.01

Cited by 4 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 7 publications

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“…Other papers look at institutional and organizational factors (Buettner and Kauder, 2010;Giuriato et al, 2016). Most papers analyze the behavior of central governments and very few focus on local authorities, particularly in Europe (exceptions being Goeminne et al, 2008;Sedmihradská andCabla, 2013;Galinski, 2013;and Benito et al, 2015). 1 Additionally, to the best of our knowledge, no study has tested a possible impact of fiscal decentralization on budget forecast errors.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Disentangling political and institutional determinants of budget forecast errors: A comparative approach

Boukari

Veiga

2018

Journal of Comparative Economics

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This paper provides a unique comparison between French and Portuguese local governments with respect to the nature and determinants of budget forecast errors. It starts by documenting and comparing their statistical properties. The results point at biased and inefficient budget forecasts, which seem to have been more cautious in French departments than in Portuguese municipalities. Second, we examine the political, institutional and economic determinants of forecast biases. Overall, we find that they are essentially driven by electoral motivations and by institutional differences across the two countries. In particular, opportunistic forecasting is more prevalent where governments enjoy greater margin of maneuver, and there is evidence of conservatism in French departments where fiscal autonomy is greater.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Disentangling political and institutional determinants of budget forecast errors: A comparative approach

Boukari

Veiga

2018

Journal of Comparative Economics

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“…Chatagny and Soguel (2012) find underforecasting of revenues by Swiss cantons from 1980-2002, which leads to reductions in actual expenditures, and Chatagny and Siliverstovs (2013) similarly find conservative revenue forecasts over a longer time period but increasingly less so (that is, forecasting became more accurate over time). Czech municipalities similarly underforecast revenues (although smaller cities underforecast less), and longer budget processes lead to increased revenue underforecasting (Sedmihradská, 2013;Sedmihradská & Čabla, 2013;Sedmihradská & Klazar, 2011), which is consistent with the American context (see D. W. Williams, 2012). Benito, Guillamón, and Bastida (2015) find opportunistic behavior by Australian politicians, who overestimate revenues during election years.…”

Section: Revenue Forecastingmentioning

confidence: 65%

The Status of Budget Forecasting

Williams

Calabrese

2016

J. Public Nonprof Aff.

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This article examines the breadth of the current forecast literature as it relates to public budget making. It serves to provide summary information to decision-makers who otherwise do not have the resources to learn more than a small amount focused on much more narrowly defined areas of forecasting (such as the politics of forecast bias). Next, it serves those who perform forecasting related to budgeting by reviewing the current methods and practices commonly used in this domain. It also provides a ground level for future public budget forecasting research. Finally, this article identifies several areas in which the public forecasting literature needs additional development. Several of these areas, such as the effectiveness of nonregression-based forecasting techniques, are quite important to the majority of governments in the United States and other subnational jurisdictions, where budget offices are limited and resource investments in technology are scarce.

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Analysis of fiscal competitiveness in Lithuania’s municipalities

Bajorūnienė

Rudytė

Skunčikienė

2016

JECS

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Nowadays municipal revenue management and administrative issues are more important and problematic. It is noted that in Lithuania’s separate municipalities collected budget revenues, formed budget expenditure, set borrowing limits, allocated from the state budget financial resources (grants) are significantly different. In order to determine reasons for these differences, it is appropriate to analyze the municipal fiscal competitiveness and identify fiscal competitiveness factors of individual Lithuanian municipalities. Understanding municipal fiscal competitiveness factors helps to explain why some municipalities more successfully than others increase tax revenue level and financial - social opportunities of their populations. This scientific article is funded by the Research Council of Lithuania according to the project „The evaluation of municipalities’ fiscal competitiveness in the context of economic growth” (2015-2018), registration No. MIP-013/2015.

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Budget accuracy in Czech municipalities and the determinants of tax revenue forecasting errors

Cited by 4 publications

References 7 publications

Disentangling political and institutional determinants of budget forecast errors: A comparative approach

Disentangling political and institutional determinants of budget forecast errors: A comparative approach

The Status of Budget Forecasting

Analysis of fiscal competitiveness in Lithuania’s municipalities

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