Broadening Predictive Understanding of Species’ Range Responses to Climate Change: The Case of Aloidendron dichotomum

Brodie, Lara P.; Grey, Kerry-Anne; Bishop, Jacqueline M.; Midgley, Guy F.

doi:10.3389/fevo.2021.715702

Cited by 6 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 83 publications

(144 reference statements)

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Rapid shifts in the climate regime could limit a population's ability to recruit while adult Joshua trees continue to survive in undisturbed habitat, leading to lag effects (Svenning and Sandel, 2013) that may not be detected using the methods presented here. Lags in population change for long-lived plants are already observed among the large tree-like quiver tree (Aloidendron dichotomum) of South Africa and Namibia (Foden et al, 2007;Brodie et al, 2021).…”

Section: Environmental Variables and Yucca Sppmentioning

confidence: 95%

Unprecedented distribution data for Joshua trees (Yucca brevifolia and Y. jaegeriana) reveal contemporary climate associations of a Mojave Desert icon

Esque,

Shryock,

Berry

et al. 2023

Front. Ecol. Evol.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

IntroductionForecasting range shifts in response to climate change requires accurate species distribution models (SDMs), particularly at the margins of species' ranges. However, most studies producing SDMs rely on sparse species occurrence datasets from herbarium records and public databases, along with random pseudoabsences. While environmental covariates used to fit SDMS are increasingly precise due to satellite data, the availability of species occurrence records is still a large source of bias in model predictions. We developed distribution models for hybridizing sister species of western and eastern Joshua trees (Yucca brevifolia and Y. jaegeriana, respectively), iconic Mojave Desert species that are threatened by climate change and habitat loss.MethodsWe conducted an intensive visual grid search of online satellite imagery for 672,043 0.25 km2 grid cells to identify the two species' presences and absences on the landscape with exceptional resolution, and field validated 29,050 cells in 15,001 km of driving. We used the resulting presence/absence data to train SDMs for each Joshua tree species, revealing the contemporary environmental gradients (during the past 40 years) with greatest influence on the current distribution of adult trees.ResultsWhile the environments occupied by Y. brevifolia and Y. jaegeriana were similar in total aridity, they differed with respect to seasonal precipitation and temperature ranges, suggesting the two species may have differing responses to climate change. Moreover, the species showed differing potential to occupy each other's geographic ranges: modeled potential habitat for Y. jaegeriana extends throughout the range of Y. brevifolia, while potential habitat for Y. brevifolia is not well represented within the range of Y. jaegeriana.DiscussionBy reproducing the current range of the Joshua trees with high fidelity, our dataset can serve as a baseline for future research, monitoring, and management of this species, including an increased understanding of dynamics at the trailing and leading margins of the species' ranges and potential for climate refugia.

show abstract

Section: Environmental Variables and Yucca Sppmentioning

confidence: 95%

Unprecedented distribution data for Joshua trees (Yucca brevifolia and Y. jaegeriana) reveal contemporary climate associations of a Mojave Desert icon

Esque,

Shryock,

Berry

et al. 2023

Front. Ecol. Evol.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Similarly, comparing observed geographical shifts in climate variables and species' distributions can indicate the presence of a biotic lag, and can be used to reveal how much of the distributional shift is explained by the shift in climate (Lenoir et al ., 2020). A recent variation of this type of approach uses a series of hindcast ENM predictions to estimate the distance of past shifts in the climatically suitable areas for a species, and hence the potential colonisation rate, which can then be compared to the rate required under future climate change (Brodie et al ., 2021).…”

Section: Application Of Sfts To Climate–biotic Relationshipsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Space‐for‐time substitutions in climate change ecology and evolution

Lovell,

Collins,

Martin

et al. 2023

Biological Reviews

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

In an epoch of rapid environmental change, understanding and predicting how biodiversity will respond to a changing climate is an urgent challenge. Since we seldom have sufficient long‐term biological data to use the past to anticipate the future, spatial climate–biotic relationships are often used as a proxy for predicting biotic responses to climate change over time. These ‘space‐for‐time substitutions’ (SFTS) have become near ubiquitous in global change biology, but with different subfields largely developing methods in isolation. We review how climate‐focussed SFTS are used in four subfields of ecology and evolution, each focussed on a different type of biotic variable – population phenotypes, population genotypes, species' distributions, and ecological communities. We then examine the similarities and differences between subfields in terms of methods, limitations and opportunities. While SFTS are used for a wide range of applications, two main approaches are applied across the four subfields: spatial in situ gradient methods and transplant experiments. We find that SFTS methods share common limitations relating to (i) the causality of identified spatial climate–biotic relationships and (ii) the transferability of these relationships, i.e. whether climate–biotic relationships observed over space are equivalent to those occurring over time. Moreover, despite widespread application of SFTS in climate change research, key assumptions remain largely untested. We highlight opportunities to enhance the robustness of SFTS by addressing key assumptions and limitations, with a particular emphasis on where approaches could be shared between the four subfields.

show abstract

“…2c; (Ash et al, 2017)). A recent variation of this type of approach uses a series of hindcast ENM projections to estimate the distance of past shifts in climatically suitable areas for a species, and hence the potential migration rate, which can then be compared to the rate required under future climate change (Brodie et al, 2021).…”

Section: Application Of Sfts To Climate-biotic Relationships (1) Popu...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Space-for-time substitutions in climate change ecology and evolution

Lovell¹,

Collins²,

Simón³

et al. 2022

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

In an epoch of rapid environmental change, understanding and predicting how biodiversity will respond to a changing climate is one of the most urgent challenges faced in ecology and evolution. Since we seldom have sufficient long-term biological data to use the past to anticipate the future, spatial climate-biotic associations are often used as a proxy for predicting biotic responses to climate change over time. These ‘space-for-time substitutions’ (SFTS) have become near ubiquitous in global change biology, but with different subfields having largely developed in isolation. We review how climate-focussed SFTS are used in four subfields of global change biology, each focussed on a different response type – population phenotypes, population genotypes, species’ distributions, and ecological communities. We identify the similarities and differences between the methods, the limitations and opportunities within each subfield, and highlight the potential for different subfields to gain insight from each other. While SFTS are used for a wide range of applications, two main approaches are applied across subfields: in situ gradient methods (including ecological niche modelling) and transplants (common gardens and reciprocal transplants). All SFTS methods and applications share a number of key limitations and assumptions relating to (i) the causality of identified spatial associations and (ii) the transferability of these relationships over time. Despite their widespread use, key assumptions in SFTS remain largely untested, including the fundamental assumption that climate-biotic relationships observed over space are causal and are equivalent to those occurring over time. We highlight how the robustness of SFTS can be improved by addressing these assumptions and limitations, with a particular emphasis on where approaches could be shared between subfields.

show abstract

Broadening Predictive Understanding of Species’ Range Responses to Climate Change: The Case of Aloidendron dichotomum

Cited by 6 publications

References 83 publications

Unprecedented distribution data for Joshua trees (Yucca brevifolia and Y. jaegeriana) reveal contemporary climate associations of a Mojave Desert icon

Unprecedented distribution data for Joshua trees (Yucca brevifolia and Y. jaegeriana) reveal contemporary climate associations of a Mojave Desert icon

Space‐for‐time substitutions in climate change ecology and evolution

Space-for-time substitutions in climate change ecology and evolution

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About