Broad-scale modelling of coastal wetlands: what is required?

McFadden, Loraine; Spencer, Tom; Nicholls, Robert J.

doi:10.1007/s10750-006-0413-8

Cited by 65 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…The predictive plant community models developed in this study incorporated the main factors predicted to influence the future location and extent of vegetation in coastal wetlands: isostatic uplift, sea level rise and sediment accretion (McFadden et al, 2007). Previous studies assessing the effects of SLR on coastal wetlands have been limited due partly to the use of inaccurate elevation data and especially the exclusion of sediment accretion data.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…3, 4, 5), a significant difference to the dGPS calibrated model. In many coastal wetlands, sediment accretion is a primary driver of wetland development (Webb et al, 2013), and accretion rates are therefore an important factor to be taken into account when modelling the effects of SLR on coastal environments (McFadden et al, 2007). This study has utilised historical sediment accretion rates derived from 210 Pb dating (Ward et al, 2014) and extrapolated the results for SLR modelling (Craft et al, 2009).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Improved modelling of the impacts of sea level rise on coastal wetland plant communities

et al. 2015

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Improved modelling of the impacts of sea level rise on coastal wetland plant communities

et al. 2015

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“…The Wetland Change module captures the integrated response of wetlands to sea-level rise (see McFadden et al 2007b;L. McFadden et al, manuscript in preparation).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sea-level rise vulnerability in the countries of the Coral Triangle

et al. 2010

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Sea-level rise is a major threat facing the Coral Triangle countries in the twenty-first century. Assessments of vulnerability and adaptation that consider the interactions among natural and social systems are critical to identifying habitats and communities vulnerable to sea-level rise and for supporting the development of adaptation strategies. This paper presents such an assessment using the DIVA model and identifies vulnerable coastal regions and habitats in Coral Triangle countries at national and sub-national levels (administrative provinces). The following four main sealevel rise impacts are assessed in ecological, social and economic terms over the twenty-first century: (1) coastal wetland change, (2) increased coastal flooding, (3) increased coastal erosion, and (4) saltwater intrusion into estuaries and deltas. The results suggest that sea-level rise will significantly affect coastal regions and habitats in the Coral Triangle countries, but the impacts will differ across the region in terms of people flooded annually, coastal wetland change and loss, and damage and adaptation costs. Indonesia is projected to be most affected by coastal flooding, with nearly 5.9 million people expected to experience flooding annually in 2100 assuming no adaptation. However, if adaptation is considered, this number is significantly reduced. By the end of the century, coastal wetland loss is most significant for Indonesia in terms of total area lost, but the Solomon Islands are projected to experience the greatest relative loss of coastal wetlands. Damage costs associated with sea-level rise are highest in the Philippines (US $6.5 billion/year) and lowest in the Solomon Islands (US $70,000/year). Adaptation is estimated to reduce damage costs significantly, in particular for the Philippines, Indonesia, and Malaysia (between 68 and 99%). These results suggest that the impacts of sea-level rise are likely to be widespread in the region and adaptation measures must be broadly applied.

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“…Saltmarshes in areas with a small tidal range are generally more vulnerable to sea-level rise than those in areas with a larger tidal range (as used subsequently by McFadden et al (2007) in their conceptual model). To capture this behaviour, relative sea-level rise is scaled by tidal range as defined in Eqs.…”

Section: Saltmarsh Habitat Changementioning

confidence: 99%

“…It is increasingly recognised that coastal wetland habitats will become more vulnerable to tidal inundation and loss under future climate change and sea-level rise, both globally (Hoozemans et al 1993;Nicholls et al 1999;McFadden et al 2007), and at national and sub-national scales (Holman et al 2005a, b;Lee 2001;Gardiner et al 2007). Climate change is predicted to cause a general decline of valuable intertidal habitat types such as mudflats and saltmarsh ; the distinct habitats of coastal and fluvial floodplain grazing marsh, which have often developed due to historic flood management may also be changed, but these systems are also sensitive to flood management (Watkinson et al 2007).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Regional assessment of climate change impacts on coastal and fluvial ecosystems and the scope for adaptation

et al. 2008

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Ecosystem changes in floodplains could be a major issue during the twentyfirst century as designated habitat areas are affected by climate change and floodplain management options. As part of the RegIS project, a Regional Impact Simulator has been developed to investigate these potential changes. This paper presents the methodologies and results of biodiversity metamodels used within the Regional Impact Simulator for two regions of the UK: East Anglia and North West England. Potential impacts and adaptations to future climate and socio-economic scenarios are analysed for three habitat types in floodplains (saltmarsh, coastal grazing marsh and fluvial grazing marsh) and selected species. An important finding is that management choices, which can be linked to socio-economic futures have a greater potential impact on habitat viability than climate change. The choices society makes will therefore be key to protection and conservation of biodiversity. The analyses also show that coastal grazing marsh is the most vulnerable habitat to sea-level rise, although there is a scope for substituting losses with fluvial grazing marsh. These results indicate that these methods provide a useful approach for assessing potential biodiversity changes at the regional scale, including the effect of different policies.

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Broad-scale modelling of coastal wetlands: what is required?

Cited by 65 publications

References 31 publications

Improved modelling of the impacts of sea level rise on coastal wetland plant communities

Improved modelling of the impacts of sea level rise on coastal wetland plant communities

Sea-level rise vulnerability in the countries of the Coral Triangle

Regional assessment of climate change impacts on coastal and fluvial ecosystems and the scope for adaptation

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