British Hegemony and Militarized Interstate Disputes, 1815-1939

Abstract

Almtract.In this paper, we examine some competing explanations of the Pnr Dn'tnmio, the long era of relative peace thnt marks the 19th century. We test hypotheses derived from balance of power theory and from theories of hegemonic order (including the hegemonie stability theory of Gilpin, the political longcycle theory of Modelski, Thompson ond their associates, world systems theory, and the economic long-cycle theory of Kondratieff) regarding the Occurrence of militarized interstate disputes (MIDs) for 1815-1939. Using indicators of British economic and military capacity, the regression analyses indicate t h a t the rise and fall of British military and economic capacity ossociates inversely some measures of major power MIDs. From the theoretical models of phases of hegemonic order, we find no support for the implications of the Gilpin and the World systems models. Support for the double cobweb model (Modelski) exists, but the model is very sensitive to a single data point. Finally, eras of world economic expansion (from the Kondratieff model) appear to be positively associated with the incidence of MIDs.