Bringing Statistics to Storylines: Rare Event Sampling for Sudden, Transient Extreme Events
Justin Finkel,
Paul A. O’Gorman
Abstract:A leading goal for climate science and weather risk management is to accurately model both the physics and statistics of extreme events. These two goals are fundamentally at odds: the higher a computational model's resolution, the more expensive are the ensembles needed to capture accurate statistics in the tail of the distribution. Here, we focus on events that are localized in space and time, such as heavy precipitation events, which can start suddenly and decay rapidly. We advance a method for sampling such… Show more
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