Bringing Modeling to the Masses: A Web Based System to Predict Potential Species Distributions

Graham, J. H.; Newman, Greg; Kumar, Sunil; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Young, Nick; Crall, Alycia; Stohlgren, Thomas J.; Evangelista, Paul

doi:10.3390/fi2040624

“…Some recent developments in computing technologies have been focused on making ecological modelling tools accessible to the masses (e.g., Graham et al 2010). Even casual scans of ecological modelling discussion-lists reveal the alarming frequency with which scientists with little or no prior experience or training in ecological modelling grasp these techniques and apply them as a means of 'rounding out their studies'.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Taxonomic uncertainty in pest risks or modelling artefacts? Implications for biosecurity policy and practice

Kriticos¹,

Morin²,

Webber³

2014

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Various aspects of uncertainty have become topical in pest risk modelling discussions. A recent contribution to the literature sought to explore the effect of taxonomic uncertainty on modelled pest risk. The case study involved a high profile plant pathogen Puccinia psidii, which causes a major disease of plants within the Myrtaceae family. Consequently, the results and recommendations may attract a wide range of interest in the biosecurity and pest risk modelling communities. We found the study by Elith et al. (2013) included a number of methodological issues that limit some of the specific and general conclusions reached in the paper. We discuss these issues and the ensuing implications for biosecurity management. We also draw attention to the need for pest risk modellers and biosecurity managers to find ways to communicate more effectively. We urge modellers and managers alike to develop a better understanding of the challenges and limitations of modelling species potential distributions across novel climates, and to be able to appreciate the meanings and limitations of models framed in different ways. COMMENTARY Advancing research on alien species and biological invasionsA peer-reviewed open-access journal NeoBiota Darren J. Kriticos et al. / NeoBiota 23: 81-93 (2014)

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“…However, although an increasing number of online initiatives are making it easier for non‐experts to directly access biodiversity data and build SDMs through user‐friendly web interfaces (Graham et al . ; Jetz et al . ), these web tools only afford – in their current implementation – a limited ability to explore different data sets and model settings (Table ; Appendix S7).…”

Section: Bridging the Gap Between Modellers And Decision Makersmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Translators can provide a valuable service in promoting and supporting the development of appropriate tools for management. However, although an increasing number of online initiatives are making it easier for non-experts to directly access biodiversity data and build SDMs through user-friendly web interfaces (Graham et al 2010;Jetz et al 2012), these web tools only affordin their current implementationa limited ability to explore different data sets and model settings (Table 2; Appendix S7). They therefore currently cannot be considered sufficient alternatives to the direct involvement of professional modellers in a decision process, ideally mediated by translators.…”

Section: Bridging the Gap Between Modellers And Decision Makersmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting species distributions for conservation decisions

Guisan

¹

,

Tingley

²

,

Baumgartner

³

et al. 2013

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Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly proposed to support conservation decision making. However, evidence of SDMs supporting solutions for on-ground conservation problems is still scarce in the scientific literature. Here, we show that successful examples exist but are still largely hidden in the grey literature, and thus less accessible for analysis and learning. Furthermore, the decision framework within which SDMs are used is rarely made explicit. Using case studies from biological invasions, identification of critical habitats, reserve selection and translocation of endangered species, we propose that SDMs may be tailored to suit a range of decision-making contexts when used within a structured and transparent decision-making process. To construct appropriate SDMs to more effectively guide conservation actions, modellers need to better understand the decision process, and decision makers need to provide feedback to modellers regarding the actual use of SDMs to support conservation decisions. This could be facilitated by individuals or institutions playing the role of ‘translators’ between modellers and decision makers. We encourage species distribution modellers to get involved in real decision-making processes that will benefit from their technical input; this strategy has the potential to better bridge theory and practice, and contribute to improve both scientific knowledge and conservation outcomes.

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“…The complexity of biological invasions and the related risk management questions mean that this matching process demands a significant level of modelling experience and expertise. Some recent developments in computing technologies have been focused on making ecological modelling tools accessible to the masses (e.g., Graham et al 2010). Even casual scans of ecological modelling discussion-lists reveal the alarming frequency with which scientists with little or no prior experience or training in ecological modelling grasp these techniques and apply them as a means of 'rounding out their studies'.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Taxonomic uncertainty in pest risks or modelling artefacts? Implications for biosecurity policy and practice

Kriticos¹,

Morin²,

Webber³

2014

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Various aspects of uncertainty have become topical in pest risk modelling discussions. A recent contribution to the literature sought to explore the effect of taxonomic uncertainty on modelled pest risk. The case study involved a high profile plant pathogen Puccinia psidii, which causes a major disease of plants within the Myrtaceae family. Consequently, the results and recommendations may attract a wide range of interest in the biosecurity and pest risk modelling communities. We found the study by Elith et al. (2013) included a number of methodological issues that limit some of the specific and general conclusions reached in the paper. We discuss these issues and the ensuing implications for biosecurity management. We also draw attention to the need for pest risk modellers and biosecurity managers to find ways to communicate more effectively. We urge modellers and managers alike to develop a better understanding of the challenges and limitations of modelling species potential distributions across novel climates, and to be able to appreciate the meanings and limitations of models framed in different ways.

show abstract

Bringing Modeling to the Masses: A Web Based System to Predict Potential Species Distributions

Cited by 8 publications

References 20 publications

Taxonomic uncertainty in pest risks or modelling artefacts? Implications for biosecurity policy and practice

Taxonomic uncertainty in pest risks or modelling artefacts? Implications for biosecurity policy and practice

Predicting species distributions for conservation decisions

Taxonomic uncertainty in pest risks or modelling artefacts? Implications for biosecurity policy and practice

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