Brief Communication: On direct impact probability of landslides on vehicles

Nicolet, Pierrick; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Cloutier, Catherine; Crosta, Giovanni B.; Lévy, Sébastien

doi:10.5194/nhessd-3-7311-2015

Cited by 4 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…During the last 16 years, the Monasterio de Piedra natural site has received an average number of 250,040 visitors per year (696 ≈ 700 visitors/day). Most QRA studies for infrastructures such as roads and railways, assume uniformly distributed flow of the exposed elements in space (all of them occupy the same length) and time (Hungr et al 1999;Ferlisi et al 2012;Michoud et al 2012;Nicolet et al 2016;Macciotta et al 2016). This assumption is arguable in the case of Lago del Espejo as the visitors usually walk in groups of different sizes.…”

Section: Rockgis Codementioning

confidence: 99%

“…The probability of impact on any exposed element that moves along the analyzed section at the instant of arrival of the rockfall blocks, is function of the flow of elements and the width of the rockfall. For people moving along a trail path is (adapted from Nicolet et al, 2016):…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…fp: people flow (persons/day) Wr: width of the rockfall debris front (m) lp: length of the trail occupied by the person or group of people (m) vp: is the mean velocity of the person or group of people (km/h) Wr is the actual width occupied by the rockfall or the length of the trail actually affected by the event (Nicolet et al 2016). This is true if the rockfall forms a continuous front as occurs in mudslides, snow avalanches, or debris flows.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Quantitative analysis of risk from fragmental rockfalls

2018

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Rockfalls are ubiquitous diffuse hazard in mountain regions, cliffs and cutslopes, with the potential of causing victims and severely damaging buildings and infrastructures. A vast majority of detached rock masses break up when impacting the ground, generating multiple trajectories of rock fragments. In this paper, we present the quantitative risk analysis (QRA) of fragmental rockfalls. Fragmentation in rockfalls requires the redefinition of the probability of reach and the evaluation of the effect of multiple rock blocks trajectories on the exposure. An example of QRA was carried out at the Monasterio de Piedra, Spain using RockGIS, a rockfall propagation model that takes fragmentation into account (Matas et al. 2017). The results show that fragmentation has a significant but contrasting effect in the calculation of risk. The risk is reduced if the slope where blocks propagate is sufficiently long and gentle. The reason for this is that, compared to the unfragmented rock masses, the new fragments generated travel shorter distances with lesser kinetic energy. The effect disappears in case of large rockfalls. Conversely, the risk increases if the rock fragments propagate over steep slopes. The reason is that few blocks stop along the way while the generation of a cone of fragments increases the exposure. Our simulations also show that assuming a continuous flow of visitors or segregating the flow in groups of different number of people, has only a minor influence on the results. Finally, we observed that the capability of the protection barriers to stop rockfalls of up to a few tens of cubic meters increases with fragmentation.

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Section: Rockgis Codementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Quantitative analysis of risk from fragmental rockfalls

2018

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“…on vehicles (e.g. Budetta, 2004;Peila and Guardini, 2008;Nicolet et al, 2016). Fell et al (2005) assessed the probability of a falling block hitting a vehicle based on the length of the vehicle and the traffic flow.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantitative Risk Assessment of Vehicles Hit by Landslides: A Case Study

Zhang

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Abstract. Landslides threaten the safety of vehicles on highways. Nevertheless, a rigorous quantitative highway landslide risk assessment seems difficult. Using a case study in Hong Kong, this paper presents a method for quantitative risk assessment for highway landslides. The suggested method consists of three parts, i.e., analysis of annual failure probability of the slope, the spatial impact analysis and the consequence analysis. In the case study, the annual failure probability of the slope is analyzed based on historical failure data in Hong Kong. The spatial impact of the landslides is estimated based on empirical correlations with the geometry of the slope. The consequence is assessed based on probabilistic modeling of the traffic on the highway. Based on the suggested method, the annual failure probability of the slope, the distance from the slope and the road and the density of vehicles on the road can significantly affect the landslide risk and the suggested method can be used to quantify the effects of these factors. The suggested method can be also potentially used to analyze the highway landslide risk in other regions.

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“…Jaiswal et al(2010) 5 applied a risk model for debris slides, where the temporal probability was indirectly obtained by the return period of the triggering rainfalls and the road vulnerability was assessed in function of the road location and expected debris magnitude. Ferrero and Migliazza (2013) made a first attempt to incorporate the efficiency of protection measures into the risk assessment (Nicolet et al 2016). Still, when it comes to the practical application of quantitative risk analysis to linear infrastructures, several challenges exist.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrated risk assessment due to slope instabilities at the roadway network of Gipuzkoa, Basque Country

Mavrouli¹,

Corominas²,

Ibarbia³

et al. 2018

Preprint

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Transportation corridors such as roadways are often subjected to both natural instability and cut slope failure, with substantial physical damage for the road infrastructure and threat to the circulating vehicles and passengers. In the early 2000s, the Gipuzkoa Regional Council of the Basque country in Spain, marked the need for assessing the risk related to the geotechnical hazards at its road network, in order to assess and monitor their safety for the road users. The Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) was selected as a tool for comparing the risk 20 for different hazards on an objective basis. Few examples of multi-hazard risk assessment along transportation corridors exist. The methodology presented here consists in the calculation of risk in terms of probability of failure and its respective consequences, and it was applied to 95 selected points of risk (PoR) of the entire road network managed by the Gipuzkoa Regional Council. The types of encountered slope instabilities which are treated are rockfalls, retaining wall failures, slow moving landslides, and coastal erosion induced failures. The proposed 25 methodology includes the calculation of the probability of failure for each hazard based on an extensive collection of field data and its association with the expected consequences. Instrumentation data from load cells for the anchored walls and inclinometers for the slow moving landslides were used. The expected road damage was assessed for each hazard level in terms of a fixed Unit Cost, UC. The results indicate that the risk can be comparable for the different hazards. 12% of the PoR in the study area were found to be of very high risk. 30

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Brief Communication: On direct impact probability of landslides on vehicles

Cited by 4 publications

References 19 publications

Quantitative analysis of risk from fragmental rockfalls

Quantitative analysis of risk from fragmental rockfalls

Quantitative Risk Assessment of Vehicles Hit by Landslides: A Case Study

Integrated risk assessment due to slope instabilities at the roadway network of Gipuzkoa, Basque Country

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