Brexit Uncertainty and Trade Disintegration

Graziano, Alejandro; Handley, Kyle; Limão, Nuno

doi:10.3386/w25334

Cited by 40 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…4 Papers documenting a negative impact of Brexit on UK investments, employment, wages, trade, lending, and competition include Born et al (2019); Berg et al (2019); Van Reenen (2016); Sampson (2017);Breinlich et al (2018); Davies and Studnicka (2018); Dhingra et al (2017); Graziano et al (2018); Garetto et al (2019); Costa et al (2019); McGrattan and Waddle (2017); Steinberg (2019). 5 Campello et al (2018) document the investment and hiring e↵ects of Brexit on a sample of US firms exposed to the UK economy.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

The Global Impact of Brexit Uncertainty

Hassan

Hollander

Lent

et al. 2020

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mentioning

confidence: 99%

The Global Impact of Brexit Uncertainty

Hassan

Hollander

Lent

et al. 2020

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“…More recently, a few studies have started to look at post-referendum data on stock market valuations of firms, prices, entry and exit of exporters of merchandise goods, economic uncertainty and trade policy uncertainty(Davies and Studnicka 2018, Breinlich et al 2017, Crowley et al 2018, Bloom et al 2018, and Graziano et al 2018.…”

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confidence: 99%

Trade and Worker Deskilling

Costa

Dhingra

Machin

2019

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This paper presents new evidence on international trade and worker outcomes. It examines a big world event that produced an unprecedentedly large shock to the UK exchange rate. In the 24 hours in June 2016 during which the UK electorate unexpectedly voted to leave the European Union, the value of sterling plummeted. It recorded the biggest depreciation that has occurred in any of the world's four major currencies since the collapse of Bretton Woods. Exploiting this variation, the paper studies the impact of trade on wages and worker training. Wages and training fell for workers employed in sectors where the intermediate import price rose by more as a consequence of the sterling depreciation. Calibrating the estimated wage elasticity with respect to intermediate import prices to theory uncovers evidence of a production complementarity between workers and intermediate imports. This provides new direct evidence that, in the modern world of global value chains, it is changes in the cost of intermediate imports that act as a driver of the impact of globalization on worker welfare. The episode studied and the findings add to widely expressed, growing concerns about poor productivity performance relating to skills and to patterns of real wage stagnation that are plaguing contemporary labour markets.

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“…This negative impact concerns both trade participation and trade flows. The results suggest that trade policy uncertainty has decreased the number of UK companies exporting to the EU region (Crowley, Exton, and Han, 2019;Graziano, Handley and Limão, 2018). The decline also concerns trade flows.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 90%

Brexit and Impact Routes Through Global Value Chains

Ali-Yrkkö¹,

Kuusi²

2020

NIER

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We analyse the trade routes between the UK and EU countries. Our results show that the relative importance of the UK as a trading partner in the EU has slightly decreased. We further decompose the total value added into components that quantify the value added that is generated through direct trade with the UK and the indirect trade that is channelled through third countries. Close to one third of the total value added is generated through indirect trade and two thirds through direct trade. Furthermore, 18 per cent of EU countries’ value-added trade to the UK passes through the UK onto other countries.

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Brexit Uncertainty and Trade Disintegration

Cited by 40 publications

References 38 publications

The Global Impact of Brexit Uncertainty

The Global Impact of Brexit Uncertainty

Trade and Worker Deskilling

Brexit and Impact Routes Through Global Value Chains

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