Brexit, uncertainty, and migration decisions

Abstract

We leverage the British Brexit referendum decision to leave the European Union, to demonstrate how changes in uncertainty about a country's future socio-political condition can impact migratory behaviour. Using official bilateral migration statistics, we report an excess increase in migration from the UK to the EU of approximately 16% post-referendum, compared to movements between the remaining EU countries over the same period. In addition, we analyse in-depth interviews conducted with UK migrants in Germany to show that uncertainty about future bilateral relations, a negative economic outlook, and perceptions of negative social consequences in the UK have been by far the most dominant drivers of migration in the post-referendum period.We further corroborate the effect of changes in uncertainty on migration-related behaviour with exceptional spikes in naturalisations, indicating that UK citizens living in other EU member states are actively taking decisions to mitigate the negative impact that Brexit is having on their livelihoods.

What about Europe? European identity and spatial imaginaries of Europe among Polish migrants during post-Brexit negotiations in Scotland

“…Consequently, the referendum might herald the beginning of a new migration phenomenon and migrant category: a Brexit émigré . Judging by the number of EU migrants in the United Kingdom (Auer and Tetlow, 2020), and in light of the likely decline in ‘Europeanised’ migration policy in the United Kingdom (Dennison and Geddes, 2018), this is potentially a significant migratory development requiring further academic attention.…”

Migrants as “dissonant harmony-seekers” and migrant life in “foam”

“…As a matter of fact, mobility and belonging of citizens have also been renegotiated in the UK and the US in the era of Brexit and Trump. For example, Auer and Tetlow (2020) demonstrate how “collective uncertainty”, induced by national government policy, affects UK citizens’ migratory behaviour. Concerns about a negative economic outlook and social consequences in the UK have driven approximately 17,000 UK citizens to migrate to the EU – a 30% increase compared to pre-Brexit numbers (Auer and Tetlow, 2020).…”

“…For example, Auer and Tetlow (2020) demonstrate how “collective uncertainty”, induced by national government policy, affects UK citizens’ migratory behaviour. Concerns about a negative economic outlook and social consequences in the UK have driven approximately 17,000 UK citizens to migrate to the EU – a 30% increase compared to pre-Brexit numbers (Auer and Tetlow, 2020). Similarly, in 2020, the number of Americans renouncing their citizenship was approximately 7,000 – a 260% increase from the prior year (Cuison-Villazor, 2022).…”

A Bad Break-Up? Assessing the Effects of the 2016 Brexit Referendum on Migration

“…Respondents stated that the Brexit vote exposed the national and ethnic hierarchies among migrants, where Western Europeans are more welcome than Eastern Europeans. Auer and Tetlow (2020) find that the uncertain implications of the referendum were the driving force behind British citizens who migrated to Germany post-2016, while personal motivations dominated prior. Finally, Godin and Sigona (2022) illustrate how the referendum influenced the decision to apply for British naturalisation.…”