Brexit Uncertainty and its (Dis)Service Effects

Ahmad, Saad; Limão, Nuno; Oliver, Sarah; Shikher, Serge

doi:10.3386/w28053

Cited by 10 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…This value indicates the partial correlation between past and contemporaneous services trade flows. 22 The remainder of this section describes results for individual sectors in more detail.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This implies that the standard gravity coefficient identified here might be a lower bound for the true long-run impact. In this case, the range between 7% and 20% would be an upper bound for the share of services trade growth occurring in the short term 22. More precisely, it can be considered an upper bound for the relationship between past trade flows and contemporaneous trade.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Right here, right now? New evidence on the economic effects of services trade reform

2023

OECD Trade Policy Papers

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This paper provides evidence on the "when, how and where" of the effects of service trade policy reforms, discussing short-term impacts on services trade as well as on the performance of downstream manufacturing industries. A combination of novel methodological approaches is used to be able to track impacts over time and along the supply chain. The OECD Services Trade Restrictiveness Index serves as the measure for trade policy reform. Results show that reducing policy barriers to services trade can increase services imports already in the short run, and that benefits continue to grow over time. The impact of services trade reforms may still vary significantly depending on the nature of the policy change, the economic context, and the targeted mode of services supply. Finally, services trade reforms can have sizeable spillover effects on the productivity of manufacturing sectors that use services as intermediate inputs.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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confidence: 99%

Right here, right now? New evidence on the economic effects of services trade reform

2023

OECD Trade Policy Papers

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“…This lends support to studies such as Osnago et al (2015) showing that policy uncertainty acts as a barrier to trade equivalent to a tariff of between 1.7% and 8.7%. Other studies (Ahmad et al, 2020;Douch & Edwards, 2021) similarly identify negative effects of policy uncertainty due to Brexit on services.…”

Section: With Ukmentioning

confidence: 91%

How did Brexit impact EU trade? Evidence from real data

Buigut

Kapar

2023

World Economy

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At the time it voted to exit in 2016, the UK was a leading economy within the EU. It contributed about 16 percent of the EU GDP, while the other EU countries accounted for almost half of UK's total trade. This study attempts to answer two research questions: First, how Brexit affected the EU-UK trade and second, how it affected the trade between remaining 27 EU members. To answer these questions, quarterly data are exploited for the period from 2005Q1 to 2022Q3 covering a total of 53 trading partners including the EU members. A gravity model that controls for unobserved bilateral heterogeneity and multilateral resistance is estimated by PPML. Three phases of Brexit (the referendum, transition, and post transition [under the TCA]) are analysed. The results indicate that the Brexit referendum phase depressed UK-EU trade by around 10.5%, and transition phase by around 15%. In both cases,particularly for the transition phase, the effect is greater on the UK imports from EU than the UK exports to EU.We do not find a significant effect due to the post transition (TCA) phase. Estimates show some mild but positive effect on intra-EU trade of about 1.5% and 4.6% due to Brexit referendum and post Brexit respectively, but no significant effect from the transition phase. This suggests that some EU trade with the UK was redirected to other EU members. Hence UK should aggressively seek out new trade agreements with other countries and trade blocs as

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“…The wide range of estimates is due to the diversity of methodologies, scenarios and channels that were considered. These studies examined the effect of Brexit on UK's gross domestic product (Born et al, 2019a), inflation and real wages (Breinlich et al, 2020), exchange rate and consumer prices (Breinlich et al, 2018(Breinlich et al, , 2019, firms investments and productivity (Bloom et al, 2019), trade (Crowley et al, 2018;Graziano et al, 2021Graziano et al, , 2020Ahmad et al, 2020), migration (Booth et al, 2015;Portes and Forte, 2017;Jafari and Britz, 2017), medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) (Brown et al, 2019), loan issuances (Berg et al, 2021), and financial markets (Breinlich et al, 2018).…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%