Brexit Trade Impacts: Alternative Scenarios

A computable general equilibrium analysis of Brexit: Barriers to trade and immigration restrictions

“…This is what happens in the hard Brexit, in which the UK would experience a GDP decrease of −1.14%. Interestingly, our results are close to the ones of Ciuriak et al (). Their Brexit scenario, which is the one that is more similar to our hard Brexit, yields a −1.35% reduction in GDP in the UK, and a −0.13% for the EU.…”

“…We obtain results that are in line with the previous literature (e.g. Ciuriak et al, ; Jafari & Britz, ) but considerably extend the outcomes that are usually analysed. One exception is noteworthy, however.…”

“…Oxford Economics, ; Dustman & Frattini, and Di Giovanni, Levchenko, & Ortega, ). By contrast, Ciuriak, Dadkhah, and Xiao () and Latorre, Olekseyuk, and Yonezawa () include trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) but not immigration. Finally, Kierzenkowski, Paini, Rusticelli, and Zwarti (), Jafari and Britz () and PricewaterhouseCoopers PwC () include trade and migration (among other elements), as we do.…”

Could Brexit harm the NHS?

“…1 Academics using the same American model obtain an effect of Brexit only one third as negative (2.5% of GDP) as those predicted by the Treasury (7.7% of GDP). 11 Such exaggeration is not unexpected: Treasury civil servants serve Remainer chancellors (George Osborne and Philip Hammond) and can hardly undermine their masters.…”

The effects of Brexit on the UK economy

“…In this case, again non-tariff barriers and customs hold-ups are illegal but tariffs do apply; in our assessment, the tariff element damages the EU but not the UK essentially because given that FTAs have driven UK prices to world prices, tariffs in both directions must be absorbed by EU traders. Table 3 summarises how based on available GTAP simulations (Ciuriak, Dadkhah, & Xiao, 2017;Ciuriak, Jingliang, Ciuriak, Dadkhah, Lysenko, & Badri Narayanan, 2015) we have reconstructed the assumptions made by Whitehall as well as their published impact on GDP according to the GTAP model; it sets them side by side with what the GTAP model would say based on the alternative assumptions we regard as reasonable for UK-EU trade barriers and an assumption for FTAs with the rest of the world that achieve the full abolition of EU protection of food and manufactures (Table 3, various assumptions).…”