Báldi (2001) studied how inundation affected the local breeding passerines at the Kis-Balaton wetland. He collected observations in 3 groups (before, immediately after, and years after inundation) and quantified the changes in community structure parameters, community composition, differences between areas and periods, and species and abundances. Savi's Warbler, Locustella luscinioides, declined immediately after inundation, while Reed Bunting, Emberiza schoeniclus, and Sedge Warbler, Acrocephalus schoenobaenus, declined in the long term. However, the Great Reed Warbler (GRW), Acrocephalus arundinaceus, was the only species with a continuous increasing trend. Vadász et al. (2008) reported that the cutting of reed negatively influenced species richness and the abundance of reed passerines on Lake Kolon in Central Hungary. Savi's Warbler, Moustached Warbler Acrocephalus melanopogon, Sedge Warbler, and Reed Warbler Acrocephalus scirpaceus especially avoided cut areas, while GRW did not (Vadász et al., 2008). Báldi and Moskát (1995) and Moga et al. (2010) recorded the presence of GRW in unmanaged, burned, and mowed reed stands. Despite these sporadic observations, our knowledge about the effects of reed management and environmental factors on the breeding success of GRW is weak.Nests of small open-nesting birds are often difficult to detect in the early stages of the breeding season (Mayfield, 1975). Due to the lack of information for the period before nests are found, estimates of mortality, survival, and breeding success can be severely biased. Mayfield (1975) developed a method for estimating breeding success that reduced potential sources of error. The proposed Mayfield estimator has been further recognized as a maximum likelihood estimator (MLE). The asymptotic distribution of the MLE has been calculated, which provides a measure of asymptotic variance (Hensler and Nichols, 1981). MLE and variance can be used to test the significance of daily survival (Hensler and Nichols, 1981). Lloyd and