Breast cancer risk prediction with a log-incidence model: evaluation of accuracy

Rockhill, Beverly; Byrne, Celia; Rosner, Bernard; Louie, Mary M.; Colditz, Graham A.

doi:10.1016/s0895-4356(03)00124-0

Cited by 79 publications

(80 citation statements)

References 10 publications

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“…Identifying which women will get cancer and who will remain free from cancer is really not all that successful. We observe a RR comparing the top versus bottom decile of risk by the Gail model of only 2.8 compared with 5 in the Rosner model, which includes more risk factors (38). Of note, 44% of women who actually developed breast cancer in 5 years started with a risk of z1.67; the cut point that is typically used to identify women for tamoxifen.…”

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confidence: 74%

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Epidemiology and Prevention of Breast Cancer

Colditz

2005

Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers &Amp; Prevention

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confidence: 74%

“…We have taken the model, developed it, and now validated, it with goodness of fit and its ability to predict risk and discriminate between those who will get breast cancer and those who will not. Overall, the model predicts well (38). We can apply it to a separate 4 years of incident cases (1994-1998) and get a good fit to the data.…”

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confidence: 86%

Epidemiology and Prevention of Breast Cancer

Colditz

2005

Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers &Amp; Prevention

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“…Rockhill et al (21) recently evaluated the discriminatory accuracy of the most sophisticated logincidence model developed by Graham and Colditz (22,23) based on ideas proposed by Pike et al (24,25) using prospective data from the Nurses' Health Study. The complete model incorporated 18 risk factors including those of the Gail model, alcohol intake, use of hormone therapy, height, and body mass index.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Nipple Aspirate Fluid Cytology and the Gail Model for Breast Cancer Risk Assessment in a Screening Population

Tice

Miike²,

Adduci³

et al. 2005

Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers &Amp; Prevention

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Background: Recent guidelines suggest that chemoprevention with tamoxifen may be appropriate for women who have a 5-year risk of breast cancer greater than 1.66% calculated using the Gail model. Objectives: To determine whether nipple aspirate fluid (NAF) cytology combined with the Gail model provides breast cancer risk assessment that is superior to either method alone. Methods: Prospective observational cohort of 6,904 asymptomatic women. Breast cancer cases were identified through follow-up with the women and linkage to cancer registries. We used proportional hazards modeling to recalculate the coefficients for the predictor variables used in the Gail model. NAF cytology was added to create a second model. The two models were compared using the concordance statistic (c-statistic). Results: During 14.6 years of follow-up, 400 women were

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“…13 In this context, the breast cancer advocacy community has called for greater attention to research into breast cancer prevention as a major public health priority alongside screening and treatment. 14,15 Statistics on geographic and temporal variation and the poor prediction of individual risk from established risk factors [16][17][18] provide evidence that additional risk factors remain to be identified, lending scientific support for the advocates' hopes. A 5-fold variation in incidence rates across the world indicates that characteristics of industrial societies increase risk.…”

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confidence: 99%

Environmental pollutants, diet, physical activity, body size, and breast cancer

Brody¹,

Rudel²,

Michels³

et al. 2007

Cancer

102

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Breast cancer is the most common invasive cancer in women worldwide and the leading cause of death in US women in mid-life. Treatment has adverse effects, adding to the importance of finding modifiable risk factors. At the invitation of Susan G. Komen for the Cure, we reviewed studies of breast cancer and environmental pollutants, diet (assessed prospectively), body size, and physical activity, and animal studies that identify chemicals as potential mammary carcinogens.Databases developed in the review include information on 216 chemicals that increased mammary gland tumors in animal studies and 450 epidemiologic studies (accessible at www.silentspring.org/sciencereview and www.komen.org/ environment). Exposure to potential mammary carcinogens is widespread from chemicals found in consumer products, air and drinking water pollution, food, and women's workplaces. Epidemiologic studies have included only a small number of chemicals identified as mammary carcinogens or as hormone disruptors, which may have implications for breast cancer; however, evidence is emerging for associations between breast cancer and polychlorinated biphenyls, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, and organic solvents. Prospective diet studies have not revealed consistent associations with breast cancer. Improved exposure assessment methods will help advance future human studies of both diet and environmental pollutants. Studies of physical activity show that it is protective. In the same vein as evidence-based medicine, messages for patients, policymakers, and

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Breast cancer risk prediction with a log-incidence model: evaluation of accuracy

Cited by 79 publications

References 10 publications

Epidemiology and Prevention of Breast Cancer

Epidemiology and Prevention of Breast Cancer

Nipple Aspirate Fluid Cytology and the Gail Model for Breast Cancer Risk Assessment in a Screening Population

Environmental pollutants, diet, physical activity, body size, and breast cancer

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