Breast Cancer in Lampang, a Province in Northern Thailand: Analysis of 1993-2012 Incidence Data and Future Trends

Abstract

Background: The recent epidemiologic transition in Thailand, with decreasing incidence of infectious diseases along with increasing rates of chronic conditions, including cancer, is a serious problem for the country. Breast cancer has the highest incidence rates among females throughout Thailand. Lampang is a province in the upper part of Northern Thailand. A study was needed to identify the current burden, and the future trends of breast cancer in upper Northern Thai women. Materials and Methods: Here we used cancer incidence data from the Lampang Cancer Registry to characterize and analyze the local incidence of breast cancer. Joinpoint analysis, age period cohort model and Nordpred package were used to investigate the incidences of breast cancer in the province from 1993 to 2012 and to project future trends from 2013 to 2030. Results: Age-standardized incidence rates (world) of breast cancer in the upper parts of Northern Thailand increased from 16.7 to 26.3 cases per 100,000 female population which is equivalent to an annual percentage change of 2.0-2.8%, according to the method used. Linear drift effects played a role in shaping the increase of incidence. The three projection method suggested that incidence rates would continue to increase in the future with incidence for women aged 50 and above, increasing at a higher rate than for women below the age of 50. Conclusions: The current early detection measures increase detection rates of early disease. Preparation of a budget for treatment facilities and human resources, both in surgical and medical oncology, is essential.

National and Subnational Population-Based Incidence of Cancer in Thailand: Assessing Cancers with the Highest Burdens

“…National estimates for Thailand for these top five cancers have been previously reported, however they are limited to single estimates of each cancer over a few years at a time [ 23 , 24 , 25 ] and are reported only for specific registries [ 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 , 7 , 26 , 27 , 28 ], making comparisons by regions across cancer types difficult. This paper provides a comprehensive overview of national and subnational trends of top cancers in Thailand, including information on past and future temporal trends.…”

“…Excluding melanoma, these five cancers accounted for 59.2% of incidence, 63.1% of mortality and 54.3% of 5-year prevalence in 2012 [ 1 ]. While these national estimates are useful in highlighting important cancers on a large scale, there is clear variability in the incidence of these cancers across the north, northeast, central and south regions [ 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 , 7 ]. Effective management of these cancers and attenuation of the future burden requires subnational estimates to determine differences in incidence by region.…”

Breast Cancer Incidence Trends and Projections in Northeastern Thailand

“…The ASR (per 100,000 PY) in the south was 27.8 in 2010, and estimates for the northern and central regions were 26.3 and 34.3, respectively. 3 , 15 , 16 , 30 , 31 However, with an aging population increasing the proportion of postmenopausal women (Figure 7 ), the rising breast cancer rate in women at age 50 and older is an important contributor to the cancer burden of this region. Still, incidence for women in this age group was lower in this region in 2012 (70 cases per 100,000 PY) than in the southern (74.4 cases per 100,000 PY), central (85 cases per 100,000 PY), and northern (110 cases per 100,000 PY) regions.…”

Systematic review of the use of big data to improve surgery in low- and middle-income countries

“…). Following assessment, 68 articles, involving 708 032 patients across 71 LMICs, were included in the review ( Tables S1 and S2 , supporting information). Country‐specific patient numbers were reported in 60 studies but were absent from six and two provided total LMIC patient numbers only.…”

“…Outcomes following cancer surgery were common topics, including breast, gastric, colorectal and prostate cancer, and hepatocellular carcinoma. Cardiac surgery, caesarean section and genitourinary fistula were also well represented in included articles, whereas clinical presentations included burn management, trauma, appendicitis, groin hernias and orthopaedic fracture management.…”