Breakpoint detection in non-stationary runoff time series under uncertainty

Farsi, Niloofar; Mahjouri, Najmeh; Ghasemi, Hamid

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125458

Cited by 8 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…Thus, according to the results of the analysis of regime shifts in the time series of surface water flow, surface water quality, groundwater level, and agricultural areas in the Zayandeh‐Rud River Basin, it was determined that in all the time series, regime shifts can be identified. Similar results can be seen in the research of Farsi et al (2020), Malmir et al (2022), Nabiafjadi et al (2021), and Safavi et al (2016). According to them, the surface water flow in the study area has been decreasing.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

“…After identifying the regime shifts in the studied time series, using the method of reviewing the available resources in the Zayandeh-Rud River Basin (including Farsi et al, 2020, Gohari et al, 2013Malmir et al, 2022;Mohajeri & Horlemann, 2017;Nabiafjadi et al, 2021;Ravar et al, 2020;Safavi et al, 2016;Zamani et al, 2019;Zolfagharpour et al, 2021), causal loop diagrams (CLDs) for any detected regime shift in Vensim PLE software 7.3.5, the drivers, their feedbacks to each other, and the dominant feedback loops were identified. In one CLD, there are elements including variables, the relationships between them, the polarity of each relationship (positive or negative feedback), loops, and delays (Rocha et al, 2014;Shackleton et al, 2018).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Also, according to the study of the CLDs of this regime shift, the dominant feedback is related to the increase in water use around the metropolis of Isfahan since the early 1950s and consequently the increase in water transfer operations, and then the increase in agricultural, and industrial production and population growth, which then act as a reinforcing feedback loop in the system, gradually reducing the system's resilience to water scarcity due to climate change, and as a result, in 2008, caused a severe regime shift in eight hydrometric studied stations. The occurrence of intermittent droughts from 2008 to 2012 (Farsi et al, 2020; Nabiafjadi et al, 2021; Zolfagharpour et al, 2021) acted as a trigger factor, and along with the loss of resilience of the water systems due to the reasons mentioned, has caused severe regime shifts in surface water flow and consequently in other investigated systems. These results are consistent with the results of Gohari et al (2013) and Ravar et al (2020) regarding the dynamics of dominant feedback loops in the Zayandeh‐Rud SES.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…tem's resilience to water scarcity due to climate change, and as a result, in 2008, caused a severe regime shift in eight hydrometric studied stations. The occurrence of intermittent droughts from 2008 to 2012(Farsi et al, 2020;Nabiafjadi et al, 2021;Zolfagharpour et al, 2021) acted as a trigger factor, and along with the loss of resilience of the water systems due to the reasons mentioned, has caused severe regime shifts in surface water flow and consequently in other investigated systems. These results are consistent with the results of Gohari et al (2013) and Ravar et al (2020) regarding the dynamics of dominant feedback loops in the Zayandeh-Rud SES.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Dryland river regime shifts in Iran: Drivers and feedbacks

Rahimi

Ghorbani

Ahmadaali

et al. 2023

River Research & Apps

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In the Anthropocene, human activities have created unprecedented changes and nonlinear relationships between humans and nature. These changes can be much faster and more intense in arid and semiarid areas that have been affected by intense human activities. Iran has climates from very humid to very dry, but arid and semiarid climates cover the country's largest area. Many of these arid areas have undergone severe changes in their surface and groundwater ecosystems in recent years, which have caused severe damage to humans and the environment in the area and surrounding areas. Therefore, in this study, using the theory of regime shifts, the time series of the Zayandeh‐Rud River Basin in the center of Iran were analyzed. First, the data of the desired time series in the period of 1986–2018 was arranged seasonally. Then, using the sequential t‐test method, regime shifts in these time series were identified, and then, causal loop diagrams of these shifts and their drivers and feedbacks were interpreted. The results showed that in the time series of quantity and quality of surface water and groundwater level in the studied stations and aquifers, regime shifts can be identified. Regime shifts were also identified in the time series of agricultural land area. These shifts have occurred with the increase in human activities since the early 1950s in the metropolis of Isfahan, the increase in agricultural and industrial exploitation, and consequently, the increase in population. When this reinforcing feedback loop becomes dominant, the Zayandeh‐Rud River system has shifted from a regime of rich water resources to a regime of poor water resources. However, by recognizing and systematically analyzing these shifts, the Zayandeh‐Rud River system can be directed toward a sustainable system through structural reform, negotiation, and redefining goals.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Dryland river regime shifts in Iran: Drivers and feedbacks

Rahimi

Ghorbani

Ahmadaali

et al. 2023

River Research & Apps

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“…The second is the breakpoint regression (RD). Breakpoint regression is a quasi-experimental method similar to randomized controlled trials [31]. The main idea is that when the value of the sample individual's key variable exceeds the critical value, the individual will accept policy intervention; until then, the individual will not accept policy intervention [32].…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of the Implementation Effect of the Ecological Compensation Policy in the Poyang Lake River Basin Based on Difference-in-Difference Method

et al. 2021

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Watershed environments play an important supporting role in sustainable high-quality economic development in China, but they have been deteriorating. In order to solve environmental problems in the Poyang Lake River Basin brought about by economic development, the Jiangxi Provincial Government promulgated relevant river basin protection policies in 2015. However, after several years of this policy, the specific effects of its implementation are a matter of general concern to the government and academic circles. After years of policy implementation, the implementation effect of the watershed ecological compensation policy needs to be evaluated. Based on 4248 observations from the Jiangxi and Hunan Provinces, we adopt the difference-in-difference method to analyze the impact of the ecological compensation policy on the Poyang Lake River Basin. The empirical results show that the ecological compensation policy has a significant effect on water-quality improvement. Water quality in the upstream area is better than that in the downstream area; areas with small administrative areas have a smaller population, which in turn leads to better water quality in the river basin; and the higher the per capita GDP, the worse the water quality. Our results highlight the need for the following policy improvements: ecological priority, customizing measures to local conditions, tracing the main body, and strengthening supervision.

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