Breaking the back of COVID-19: Is Bangladesh doing enough testing?

Abstract

Following detection of the first 100 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in early April, Bangladesh stepped up its efforts to strengthen testing capacity in order to curb the spread of the disease across the country. This paper sheds light on the position of Bangladesh in relation to its South Asian neighbors India and Pakistan with respect to testing capacity and ability to detect cases with increased testing. It also analyzes recent data on case counts and testing numbers in Bangladesh, to provide an idea regarding the number of extra tests needed to detect a substantial number of cases within a short period of time. Findings indicate that compared to India and Pakistan, Bangladesh was able to detect more cases by increasing testing levels and expand its testing capacity by performing more per capita tests. In spite of these achievements, the rate of reported cases per 100 tests was consistently higher for Bangladesh compared to India, which suggests that in addition to increased testing, other factors, such as, effective enforcement of social distancing and efficient contact tracing are just as important in curbing the spread of the disease. The analysis reveals that current testing levels in Bangladesh are not adequate. Based on the findings, we recommend a 30-50\% growth of the current test rate in the next few days so that by detecting and isolating more cases, Bangladesh could, in effect, contain the spread of new infections. The challenge, however, is to mobilize resources necessary to expand geographical coverage and improve testing quality while enforcing social distancing and performing efficient contact tracing.

Space-Time Patterns, Change, and Propagation of COVID-19 Risk Relative to the Intervention Scenarios in Bangladesh

“…It could provide valuable insights into the space-time transmission rate and process through including age-specific data with other medical (pre-existing conditions) and socio-economic indicators (e.g., housing density, median income) at the local level. Third, our findings may suffer from a low COVID-19 testing rate (513 per 1 million; WHO Bangladesh situation report, May 04, 2020) against its high density and the size of the population in Bangladesh [ 43 ]. However, as more missing and new data are added, the prospective scan statistic in this research will potentially detect new emerging clusters that would reveal more updated space-time transmission dynamics.…”

Why COVID-19 symptomatic patients did not seek healthcare service in Bangladesh: Evidence from a cross-sectional study

“…This centralized healthcare facility was perhaps the second most reason why participants in our study considered that there were inadequate facilities for testing. If the testing was done at a more improved rate, as one study reported, the number of positive cases would have increased by nearly 3.7 times [7].…”

“…According to the estimates of the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, there are only 3.05 physicians and 1.07 nurses per 10,000 population [6]. Dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic, Bangladesh initially lacked the capacity and a skilled workforce to perform the RT-PCR tests [7]. The unwanted decline in COVID-19 mass testing was also fueled by inadequate testing centres, testing scams, people's low trust in the healthcare system, and high costs for testing at private facilities [8].…”

Knowledge, Attitudes, and Practices Toward the Prevention of COVID-19 in Bangladesh: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

“…The World Health Organization declared it a pandemic due to its devastating effects on all aspects of health and the quality of life ( 5 ). The first COVID-19 case diagnosis in Bangladesh was reported on March 8, 2020 ( 6 , 7 ). The country has been alleged to have poor healthcare facilities and skilled manpower to tackle any health emergencies.…”